ASPEN Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$248,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily · 624 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• 3-bay garage
• Covered patio

Tags

• ONE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED PATIO
• 3-BAY GARAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $248,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,871.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 624 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,146 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 624 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,871
• List price: $248,990
• Delta: -9.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4031 Windy Whisper Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	1mo	$265,900	$192	94
4015 Crowning Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	3mo	$264,900	$191	90
4007 Ancient Honor Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	7mo	$259,900	$187	84
4019 Ancient Honor Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	7mo	$274,900	$198	84
3927 Flora Field Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	7mo	$266,900	$192	81
3919 Flora Field Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	8mo	$263,900	$190	80
3923 Accolade Xing	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	11mo	$269,900	$194	79
3907 Flora Field Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	8mo	$259,000	$187	79
3910 Flora Field Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	9mo	$269,900	$194	78
3934 Windy Whisper Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	11mo	$284,900	$180	53
3935 Glory Green Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	12mo	$274,900	$174	52
204 Wade Rd	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (+9%)	10mo	$450,000	$297	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-69,580
• Equity at exit: $40,835

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-108,146
• Equity at exit: $23,679

Cash invested: $76,684 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,436
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,108/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,396

Max offer price $229,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-209	+0% $-304	+5% $-398	+10% $-493
Rent	-10% $-463	-5% $-383	+0% $-304	+5% $-224	+10% $-145
Rate	-1.0pp $-166	-0.5pp $-234	base $-304	+0.5pp $-375	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,468
• Closing costs: $8,216
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,990 Active 624 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,990 Active 623 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,990 Active 622 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,990 Active 621 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,990 Active 619 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $248,990 Active 615 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,990 Active 614 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $248,990 Active 613 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $248,990 Active 610 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,990 Active 609 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,990 Active 608 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,990 Active 607 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,990 Active 606 DOM
14. 2025-06-12
    price $248,990 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

15. 2024-10-02
    listed $269,990 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,341
• − Property taxes: −$4,108
• − Insurance: −$1,369
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − Depreciation: −$7,967
• Taxable loss: −$8,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof, siding, and paint work, significantly impacting its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof
• Major siding — No visible siding
• Major paint — No visible paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical to safety and appearance
• Both siding repair/replacement — Improves curb appeal and durability
• Both painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · No visible siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · No visible paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Critical to safety and appearance ↑
• Both siding repair/replacement — Improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $248,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-02 Listed $269,990 Zillow