2814 Little Trout Ln · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$346,485

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,821 sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot $105/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under construction: Ready May 2026! Lennar Homes Celeste Floor plan with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2 car garage. Everything Included features 36 inch white recessed panel cabinetry with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances including range, dishwasher, microwave, and refrigerator, wood inspired LVP flooring, Honeywell Z Wave smart thermostat and energy efficient water heater. Limited one year warranty on workmanship, dedicated customer care service program, and 24 hour emergency customer service. (Conditions may apply)

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $346k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Asbury Elementary School (math 69% / reading 64%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 975 students, 38% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $245,292 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.95%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-97,931
• Equity at exit: $51,662

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-154,772
• Equity at exit: $29,958

Cash invested: $97,016 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,817
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$433 /mo · $5,197/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,164

Max offer price $265,210

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-322	-5% $-442	+0% $-562	+5% $-681	+10% $-801
Rent	-10% $-755	-5% $-659	+0% $-562	+5% $-465	+10% $-368
Rate	-1.0pp $-387	-0.5pp $-474	base $-562	+0.5pp $-651	+1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,621
• Closing costs: $10,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2935 Darlington Oak Rd Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	2096	$2,350	$1.12	9d	1	0.32mi
2555 Bear Creek Way Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,835	$1.11	25d	1	0.92mi
2858 Buck Creek Pl Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,829	$1.11	18d	1	1.04mi
2621 Fernleaf Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,135	$1.14	5d	1	1.20mi
2506 Creekfront Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,554	$1.56	25d	1	1.20mi
3549 Bella Sera Ln Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,150	$1.47	25d	1	1.21mi
2653 Fernleaf Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,005	$1.22	9d	1	1.22mi
2836 Cross Creek Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,880	$1.29	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $346,485 Active
3. 2026-02-19
   soldstatus $424,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,409
• − Property taxes: −$5,197
• − Insurance: −$1,732
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$10,080
• Taxable loss: −$12,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,109
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asbury Lake, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-18.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $346,485 realMLS
• 2026-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $424,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+74.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $655 · +74.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.