3555 S Pacific Hwy Spc 123 · Medford, OR 97501

$88,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Land public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1999 $73/sqft · 12% below area Est $100k · 12% under ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell! Take advantage of this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,200 sqft home in the sought-after Medford Estates community. With a new 2025 HVAC system, an open floor plan, spacious living area, and a well-designed kitchen with generous counter space, this home offers comfort and value. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and private bath. Outside, enjoy a covered patio, easy-care yard, and ample parking. Community amenities include a pool, clubhouse, playground, and dog park. Located close to shopping, dining, and freeway access--affordable living with great amenities. Act fast before it's gone! Property is currently operating as a licensed in-home childcare.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Easy-care yard
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-DESIGNED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• EASY-CARE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $857 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.74%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,288
• List price: $88,000
• Delta: -12.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $39,483
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $101,229
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $678

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Northridge Ter Medford, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,600	$1.68	20d	1	0.21mi
204 Cheryl Ln Unit J Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,350	$1.34	43d	1	0.63mi
310 Independence Cir Apt D Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	13d	1	0.87mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	20d	1	0.89mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	13d	1	0.89mi
211 W 1st St Apt B Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.5	1250	$1,600	$1.28	13d	1	1.23mi
600 W 1st St Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.0	864	$1,395	$1.61	20d	1	1.24mi
412 Oak St Unit 2 Phoenix, OR	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,750	$1.28	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $88,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $88,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $88,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $88,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $88,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $88,000 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Priced to sell! Take advantage of this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,200 sqft home in the sought-after Medford Estates community. With a new 2025 HVAC system, an open floor plan, spacious living area, and a well-designed kitchen with generous counter space, this home offers comfort and value. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and private bath. Outside, enjoy a covered patio, easy-care yard, and ample parking. Community amenities include a pool, clubhouse, playground, and dog park. Located close to shopping, dining, and freeway access--affordable living with great amenities. Act fast before it's gone! Property is currently operating as a licensed in-home childcare.

17. 2025-09-26
    historical
18. 2025-09-12
    price $85,000
19. 2025-08-12
    price $95,000
20. 2025-07-15
    listed $105,000 Active
21. 2025-01-16
    historical
22. 2025-01-03
    status Active
23. 2024-12-31
    historical
24. 2024-11-07
    price $100,000
25. 2024-10-25
    price $105,000
26. 2024-10-02
    price $109,999
27. 2024-09-18
    price $114,999
28. 2024-08-20
    listed $119,999 Active
29. 2023-09-01
    historical
30. 2023-07-10
    price $140,000
31. 2023-04-15
    listed $148,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $854 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 87.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $9,392
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,254
• After-tax cash flow: $8,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-40.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $88,000 MLSCO
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $85,000 MLSCO
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $95,000 MLSCO
• 2025-07-15 Listed $105,000 MLSCO
• 2025-01-16 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-01-03 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $100,000 MLSCO
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $105,000 MLSCO
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $109,999 MLSCO
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $114,999 MLSCO
• 2024-08-20 Listed $119,999 MLSCO
• 2023-09-01 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2023-07-10 Price Changed $140,000 MLSCO
• 2023-04-15 Listed $148,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $454 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.