11818 Kingslake Forest Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$68,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2003 4,399 sqft lot $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is sold as-is. Buyer is responsible for verifying property condition, including any potential environmental, moisture, mold, or health-related concerns. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a strong investment opportunity with significant potential. The property requires major repairs and is well-suited for investors or buyers seeking a renovation project. Possible options include remodeling the existing structure or pursuing a replat and new construction. This is a great opportunity to add value and customize the property to your vision.

Key facts

• 4,399 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Greensbrook homeowners association with an annual fee of $220

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2003; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.60%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11818 Kingslake Forest Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	1mo	$68,000	$57	99
11954 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	4mo	$125,000	$105	93
11722 Greenglen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	1mo	$169,000	$142	86
11835 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	11mo	$135,000	$114	83
11850 Greencanyon Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,128 (-5%)	2mo	$185,000	$164	78
11738 Greencanyon Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	4mo	$159,900	$130	76
11907 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	3mo	$159,000	$147	75
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	10mo	$139,900	$130	73
11839 Greencanyon Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,136 (-4%)	8mo	$90,000	$79	70
11715 Greenglen Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	5mo	$140,000	$130	66
11915 Greenmesa Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-12%)	10mo	$130,000	$124	60
11718 Greenmesa Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-13%)	10mo	$135,000	$130	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $48,678
• Equity at exit: $14,523

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $108,068
• Equity at exit: $13,691

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $618

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $977	-5% $953	+0% $930	+5% $906	+10% $883
Rent	-10% $788	-5% $859	+0% $930	+5% $1,001	+10% $1,072
Rate	-1.0pp $964	-0.5pp $947	base $930	+0.5pp $912	+1.0pp $894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	19d	1	0.09mi
11711 Greenglen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,603	$1.48	2d	1	0.29mi
12211 Haroldson Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	958	$1,619	$1.69	3d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $68,000 Active
2. 2019-04-03
   historical
3. 2019-03-26
   listed $108,000 Active
4. 2019-03-03
   historical
5. 2018-09-03
   listed $108,000 Active
6. 2018-08-24
   historical
7. 2017-11-09
   listed $108,000 Active
8. 2017-11-07
   historical
9. 2017-02-21
   listed $108,000 Active
10. 2017-02-16
    historical
11. 2016-12-04
    listed $108,000 Active
12. 2016-12-03
    historical
13. 2016-02-23
    listed $108,000 Active
14. 2013-05-10
    soldstatus
15. 1997-06-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $10,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,574
• After-tax cash flow: $8,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $68,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-03-26 Listed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-09-03 Listed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-11-09 Listed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2017-11-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-02-21 Listed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2017-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-12-04 Listed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2016-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-02-23 Listed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2013-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,181 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.