812 Independence Trl · Josephine, TX 75173

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · Other public records · 268 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $152/sqft · 6% below area Est $268k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

Key facts

• Foyer
• Linen closet
• Laundry room

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FOYER
• LINEN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $210,931 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.94%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,125
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -3.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $148,412
• Equity at exit: $233,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $430,944
• Equity at exit: $503,180

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,961

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	10d	1	0.63mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	6d	1	0.79mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	15d	1	0.79mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	43d	1	0.82mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	24d	1	0.99mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	1.17mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	43d	1	1.19mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	1.23mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	24d	1	1.25mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	1.26mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	1d	1	1.28mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	1.31mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	4d	1	1.32mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	7d	1	1.33mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	24d	1	1.39mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.41mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	12d	1	1.45mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	43d	1	1.47mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 262 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,000 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 253 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 252 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 250 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $259,000 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

16. 2026-05-06
    price $265,000 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

17. 2026-04-25
    status Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

18. 2026-03-25
    historical 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

19. 2026-01-29
    price $241,990 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

20. 2025-09-29
    price $273,990 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

21. 2025-08-22
    listed $288,990 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,740 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,745/yr (+$312/mo · 376.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$3,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$737
• After-tax cash flow: $2,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $259,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $265,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $273,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $288,990 Zillow

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $995 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.