728 Watertrough Rd · Spring Valley, CA 95423

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 316 Days on market

Built 1986 20 ac lot $187/sqft · 21% below area Est $286k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OVER 20 ACRES OF OFF GRID LIVING! Are you looking for your next worthwhile project? Something you can sink your teeth into and truly build something monumental? Then THIS could be the project for you! The home has layout for 3 bedrooms with a loft area. A cabin feel but with a nice amount of living space. The home operates completely off grid on solar with a well. the solar is owned so no pesky monthly payments or leases. The land is truly spectacular! panoramic views in every direction. Plenty of room for horses or any other livestock if that's your desire. Fixer upper priced to sell!

Key facts

• Room for horses
• Solar owned
• Well

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• ROOM FOR HORSES
• SOLAR OWNED
• WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.9% in Spring Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#627 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $225k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,638
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -21.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-29,236
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,250
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,132/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $178	+0% $114	+5% $50	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $36	+0% $114	+5% $192	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $171	base $114	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 316 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 311 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 304 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 303 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 302 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 299 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 297 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 296 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 295 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 294 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    price $225,000 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    OVER 20 ACRES OF OFF GRID LIVING! Are you looking for your next worthwhile project? Something you can sink your teeth into and truly build something monumental? Then THIS could be the project for you! The home has layout for 3 bedrooms with a loft area. A cabin feel but with a nice amount of living space. The home operates completely off grid on solar with a well. the solar is owned so no pesky monthly payments or leases. The land is truly spectacular! panoramic views in every direction. Plenty of room for horses or any other livestock if that's your desire. Fixer upper priced to sell!

19. 2026-03-14
    price $229,000 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    OVER 20 ACRES OF OFF GRID LIVING! Are you looking for your next worthwhile project? Something you can sink your teeth into and truly build something monumental? Then THIS could be the project for you! The home has layout for 3 bedrooms with a loft area. A cabin feel but with a nice amount of living space. The home operates completely off grid on solar with a well. the solar is owned so no pesky monthly payments or leases. The land is truly spectacular! panoramic views in every direction. Plenty of room for horses or any other livestock if that's your desire. Fixer upper priced to sell!

20. 2025-11-25
    price $239,000 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    OVER 20 ACRES OF OFF GRID LIVING! Are you looking for your next worthwhile project? Something you can sink your teeth into and truly build something monumental? Then THIS could be the project for you! The home has layout for 3 bedrooms with a loft area. A cabin feel but with a nice amount of living space. The home operates completely off grid on solar with a well. the solar is owned so no pesky monthly payments or leases. The land is truly spectacular! panoramic views in every direction. Plenty of room for horses or any other livestock if that's your desire. Fixer upper priced to sell!

21. 2025-08-09
    listed $249,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    OVER 20 ACRES OF OFF GRID LIVING! Are you looking for your next worthwhile project? Something you can sink your teeth into and truly build something monumental? Then THIS could be the project for you! The home has layout for 3 bedrooms with a loft area. A cabin feel but with a nice amount of living space. The home operates completely off grid on solar with a well. the solar is owned so no pesky monthly payments or leases. The land is truly spectacular! panoramic views in every direction. Plenty of room for horses or any other livestock if that's your desire. Fixer upper priced to sell!

22. 2025-08-08
    listed $249,000 Active
23. 2025-08-08
    historical
24. 2025-07-31
    historical
25. 2025-05-29
    price $259,000
26. 2025-03-24
    price $279,000
27. 2025-03-16
    price $289,000
28. 2025-02-07
    price $299,000
29. 2025-01-25
    price $350,000
30. 2025-01-16
    price $365,000
31. 2024-11-01
    status Active
32. 2024-10-31
    historical
33. 2024-09-03
    price $390,000
34. 2024-06-17
    price $425,000
35. 2024-05-11
    listed $450,000 Active
36. 2013-03-22
    soldstatus $150,000
37. 2005-05-01
    historical
38. 2004-11-18
    listed $259,000
39. 2004-11-10
    historical
40. 2004-06-01
    listed $259,000
41. 2002-06-12
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,132 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,132 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,132
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$584
• After-tax cash flow: $1,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #19882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 61,064
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+230.9% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $239,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-09 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $279,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-16 Price Changed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $365,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $390,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed $425,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-11 Listed $450,000 CRMLS
• 2013-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-11-18 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2004-11-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-06-01 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2002-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,132 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.