3301 Buchanan Rd #118 · Antioch, CA 94509

$72,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 322 Days on market

Built 1968 $107/sqft · 38% below area Est $117k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Large pool
• Car port

Tags

• LARGE POOL
• CHILDRENS PLAY AREA
• SPACIOUS DECK
• SPACIOUS YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• CAR PORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 322 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 322 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.05%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,982
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: -38.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3301 Buchanan Rd #68	0.01mi	2/2.0 (+1)	760 (+13%)	19mo	$110,000	$145	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $40,778
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $94,396
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $630

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3101 Buchanan Rd Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$1,750	$2.09	1d	4	0.12mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	715	$1,351	$1.89	21d	1	0.42mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$1,391	$1.73	1d	1	0.42mi
2800 Gentrytown Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,650	$2.28	2d	9	0.51mi
2201 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	686	$1,615	$2.35	1d	8	0.78mi
2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$1,828	$2.55	1d	22	1.01mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,445	$1.42	1d	10	1.07mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,936	$2.29	1d	20	1.09mi
2796 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA	—	1.0	500	$1,695	$3.39	24d	1	1.13mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,917	$2.47	2d	12	1.15mi
2725 Del Oro Cir Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	580	$1,795	$3.09	11d	1	1.24mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,039	$2.43	1d	8	1.43mi
500 Loveridge Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,920	$2.33	1d	10	1.48mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 322 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 321 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 320 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 319 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 317 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 316 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $72,000 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $72,000 Active 308 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 307 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 306 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 305 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 304 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $75,000 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

16. 2026-01-22
    price $77,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

17. 2025-12-18
    price $78,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

18. 2025-10-30
    price $79,500 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

19. 2025-10-06
    price $87,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

20. 2025-09-09
    price $88,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

21. 2025-08-13
    price $89,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

22. 2025-07-31
    listed $95,500 Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    WOW! Price Change! This mobile home in a family community has a Clubhouse, Large Pool, Children's Play area and more. The mobile home has a large bedroom, bathroom with inside laundry, large open kitchen and eating area, bright living area, a spacious deck shaded from the sun. Perfect for having your morning coffee or to hang out on and spend time with family and friends and the best part is the yard! It has a family friendly yard with a storage shed.

23. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus $67,000 Sold 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Single Wide 1 bedroom 1 bath, indoor laundry, laminate flooring, stove and refrigerator included. Covered porch and extra storage space. Park has new paved streets and PG&E upgrades. Located close to shopping and Hiway 4 access.

24. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus $67,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Single Wide 1 bedroom 1 bath, indoor laundry, laminate flooring, stove and refrigerator included. Covered porch and extra storage space. Park has new paved streets and PG&E upgrades. Located close to shopping and Hiway 4 access.

25. 2023-07-31
    status Pending 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Single Wide 1 bedroom 1 bath, indoor laundry, laminate flooring, stove and refrigerator included. Covered porch and extra storage space. Park has new paved streets and PG&E upgrades. Located close to shopping and Hiway 4 access.

26. 2023-07-07
    status Back On Market 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Single Wide 1 bedroom 1 bath, indoor laundry, laminate flooring, stove and refrigerator included. Covered porch and extra storage space. Park has new paved streets and PG&E upgrades. Located close to shopping and Hiway 4 access.

27. 2023-06-18
    historical Contingent 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Single Wide 1 bedroom 1 bath, indoor laundry, laminate flooring, stove and refrigerator included. Covered porch and extra storage space. Park has new paved streets and PG&E upgrades. Located close to shopping and Hiway 4 access.

28. 2023-06-05
    listed $69,900 New 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Single Wide 1 bedroom 1 bath, indoor laundry, laminate flooring, stove and refrigerator included. Covered porch and extra storage space. Park has new paved streets and PG&E upgrades. Located close to shopping and Hiway 4 access.

29. 2023-06-05
    listed $69,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Single Wide 1 bedroom 1 bath, indoor laundry, laminate flooring, stove and refrigerator included. Covered porch and extra storage space. Park has new paved streets and PG&E upgrades. Located close to shopping and Hiway 4 access.

30. 2007-02-15
    soldstatus $17,000
31. 2007-01-17
    historical
32. 2006-11-02
    listed $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $9,939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,385
• After-tax cash flow: $8,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+341.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $75,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $77,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $78,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $79,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $87,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $88,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $89,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-31 Listed $95,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-08-30 Sold (MLS) $67,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-08-30 Sold (MLS) $67,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-07-31 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-07-07 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-06-18 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-06-05 Listed $69,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-06-05 Listed $69,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-02-15 Sold (MLS) $17,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-01-17 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-11-02 Listed $17,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR