37127 Gossamer Ln Ln · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1972 0.75 ac lot $232/sqft · 28% above area Est $510k · 48% under ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Multiple Interest Received – Highest & Best Due by Tomorrow, March 26 Looking for space, privacy, and flexibility in Magnolia? This beautiful property sits on approximately 1 acre and offers the perfect blend of country living with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Features include: Brick single-family home, Spacious living areas, Generous outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or recreational use, Mature trees and a peaceful setting. Opportunity to enjoy more room both inside and out. Imagine morning coffee on the porch, evenings under the Texas sky, and plenty of space to make this property your own. Schedule your private tour today and discover ev

Key facts

• 1 acre
• Outdoor space
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• 1 ACRE
• BRICK SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• MATURE TREES
• PEACEFUL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1972; Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Low-emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,580 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $509,978
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -31.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37118 Gossamer Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-7%)	8mo	$225,000	$213	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $132,148
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $385,644
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $245,154

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Pending 9 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Pending 8 DOM
4. 2026-04-02
   listed $349,000 Active 591-char remark
5. 2026-04-01
   historical
6. 2026-03-14
   price $389,900
7. 2026-02-19
   listed $399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,035 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,815/yr (+$318/mo · 368.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,465
• After-tax cash flow: $117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $389,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $399,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,035 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.