6412 E Doubletree Ranch Rd · Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$5,540,000

9 bd · 9.0 ba · 9,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 2000 1.74 ac lot $604/sqft · 12% below area Est $8441k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Occupied. Residents need 48-hour notice. Resort-style, privately gated Paradise Valley estate on enclosed 1.74-acre lot. A 1/10-mile drive encircles 3 structures: main home, guest home & additional 6-car garage with RV drive-through. Designed for luxury, family living & large-scale entertaining. Possibilities for multigenerational living, guests/staff or studio space. The 4bd/6ba main home (9,100SqFt) has a split primary wing, 3 ensuite bedrooms, office, theatre, 4-car attached garage, game room; hand-carved doors, slab marble floors & chef's kitchen. 5bd/5ba guest house w/ full kitchen & laundry room (3,100SqFt) expands living options. Resort amenities: 3 pools, spa, sauna, putting green, sport court, BBQ &10 fireplaces. This rare private compound is near Scottsdale dining & shopping.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Private driveway
• Spa

Tags

• GATED ESTATE
• PRIVATE LOT
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• LUSH GROUNDS
• 3 POOLS
• SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/9.0-bath single-family listed at $5.54M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29k ($-346k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $445k (92.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $484k (91.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $445k (92.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#123 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($185k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $592k of equity ($38k loan paydown + $554k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$952k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($4.88M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.38M; list at $5.54M implies a 303% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $444,709 (92.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 92% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.09% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.31%
• DSCR: 0.01
• GRM: 95.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $8,441,323
• List price: $5,540,000
• Delta: -34.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $1,202,379
• Equity at exit: $4,990,871

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $5,042,084
• Equity at exit: $10,763,002

Cash invested: $1,551,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85253

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 95.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$29,052
• Tax from tax record: −$1,306 /mo · $15,667/yr
• Insurance: −$2,308
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,016
• Net cashflow: $-28,843

Break-even live

Break-even rent $41,350

Max offer price $444,709

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25,707	-5% $-27,275	+0% $-28,843	+5% $-30,411	+10% $-31,979
Rent	-10% $-29,226	-5% $-29,034	+0% $-28,843	+5% $-28,652	+10% $-28,461
Rate	-1.0pp $-26,053	-0.5pp $-27,434	base $-28,843	+0.5pp $-30,279	+1.0pp $-31,739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,385,000
• Closing costs: $166,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9300 N 58th St Paradise Valley, AZ	8.0	6.0	7000	$30,000	$4.29	44d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-04-23
   price $5,540,000 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Occupied. Residents need 48-hour notice. Resort-style, privately gated Paradise Valley estate on enclosed 1.74-acre lot. A 1/10-mile drive encircles 3 structures: main home, guest home & additional 6-car garage with RV drive-through. Designed for luxury, family living & large-scale entertaining. Possibilities for multigenerational living, guests/staff or studio space. The 4bd/6ba main home (9,100SqFt) has a split primary wing, 3 ensuite bedrooms, office, theatre, 4-car attached garage, game room; hand-carved doors, slab marble floors & chef's kitchen. 5bd/5ba guest house w/ full kitchen & laundry room (3,100SqFt) expands living options. Resort amenities: 3 pools, spa, sauna, putting green, sport court, BBQ &10 fireplaces. This rare private compound is near Scottsdale dining & shopping.

2. 2026-02-26
   price $5,590,000 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Occupied. Residents need 48-hour notice. Resort-style, privately gated Paradise Valley estate on enclosed 1.74-acre lot. A 1/10-mile drive encircles 3 structures: main home, guest home & additional 6-car garage with RV drive-through. Designed for luxury, family living & large-scale entertaining. Possibilities for multigenerational living, guests/staff or studio space. The 4bd/6ba main home (9,100SqFt) has a split primary wing, 3 ensuite bedrooms, office, theatre, 4-car attached garage, game room; hand-carved doors, slab marble floors & chef's kitchen. 5bd/5ba guest house w/ full kitchen & laundry room (3,100SqFt) expands living options. Resort amenities: 3 pools, spa, sauna, putting green, sport court, BBQ &10 fireplaces. This rare private compound is near Scottsdale dining & shopping.

3. 2026-01-01
   status Active 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Occupied. Residents need 48-hour notice. Resort-style, privately gated Paradise Valley estate on enclosed 1.74-acre lot. A 1/10-mile drive encircles 3 structures: main home, guest home & additional 6-car garage with RV drive-through. Designed for luxury, family living & large-scale entertaining. Possibilities for multigenerational living, guests/staff or studio space. The 4bd/6ba main home (9,100SqFt) has a split primary wing, 3 ensuite bedrooms, office, theatre, 4-car attached garage, game room; hand-carved doors, slab marble floors & chef's kitchen. 5bd/5ba guest house w/ full kitchen & laundry room (3,100SqFt) expands living options. Resort amenities: 3 pools, spa, sauna, putting green, sport court, BBQ &10 fireplaces. This rare private compound is near Scottsdale dining & shopping.

4. 2026-01-01
   historical 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Occupied. Residents need 48-hour notice. Resort-style, privately gated Paradise Valley estate on enclosed 1.74-acre lot. A 1/10-mile drive encircles 3 structures: main home, guest home & additional 6-car garage with RV drive-through. Designed for luxury, family living & large-scale entertaining. Possibilities for multigenerational living, guests/staff or studio space. The 4bd/6ba main home (9,100SqFt) has a split primary wing, 3 ensuite bedrooms, office, theatre, 4-car attached garage, game room; hand-carved doors, slab marble floors & chef's kitchen. 5bd/5ba guest house w/ full kitchen & laundry room (3,100SqFt) expands living options. Resort amenities: 3 pools, spa, sauna, putting green, sport court, BBQ &10 fireplaces. This rare private compound is near Scottsdale dining & shopping.

5. 2025-10-23
   listed $5,690,000 Active 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Occupied. Residents need 48-hour notice. Resort-style, privately gated Paradise Valley estate on enclosed 1.74-acre lot. A 1/10-mile drive encircles 3 structures: main home, guest home & additional 6-car garage with RV drive-through. Designed for luxury, family living & large-scale entertaining. Possibilities for multigenerational living, guests/staff or studio space. The 4bd/6ba main home (9,100SqFt) has a split primary wing, 3 ensuite bedrooms, office, theatre, 4-car attached garage, game room; hand-carved doors, slab marble floors & chef's kitchen. 5bd/5ba guest house w/ full kitchen & laundry room (3,100SqFt) expands living options. Resort amenities: 3 pools, spa, sauna, putting green, sport court, BBQ &10 fireplaces. This rare private compound is near Scottsdale dining & shopping.

6. 2025-06-14
   historical
7. 2025-05-24
   price $5,690,000
8. 2025-03-19
   price $5,790,000
9. 2024-10-04
   price $5,950,000
10. 2024-09-01
    status Active
11. 2024-08-25
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
12. 2024-03-24
    listed $6,100,000 Active
13. 2022-05-18
    historical
14. 2022-01-19
    status Active
15. 2021-12-10
    historical
16. 2021-09-06
    listed $5,800,000 Active
17. 2018-11-10
    historical
18. 2018-10-10
    price $3,800,000
19. 2018-07-29
    price $3,900,000
20. 2018-05-27
    price $3,950,000
21. 2018-01-20
    price $3,999,999
22. 2017-11-30
    price $4,150,000
23. 2017-10-11
    price $4,200,000
24. 2017-08-10
    price $4,250,000
25. 2017-07-10
    price $4,350,000
26. 2017-06-11
    price $4,450,000
27. 2017-05-11
    price $4,550,000
28. 2017-04-10
    listed $4,650,000 Active
29. 2011-09-19
    historical
30. 2011-09-07
    status Active
31. 2011-07-19
    status Pending
32. 2011-02-15
    status Active
33. 2010-12-28
    status Pending
34. 2010-12-26
    status Active
35. 2010-12-24
    status Pending
36. 2010-12-23
    status Active
37. 2010-12-17
    status Pending
38. 2010-09-11
    listed $4,995,000 Active
39. 2009-08-15
    historical
40. 2009-03-27
    listed $5,900,000
41. 1998-07-30
    soldstatus $1,375,000
42. 1991-02-01
    soldstatus $229,900
43. 1988-01-25
    soldstatus $375,000
44. 1985-01-01
    soldstatus $950,000
45. 1984-04-01
    soldstatus $1,400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $15,667 · $1,306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $36,564 · $3,047/mo
• Expected delta: +$20,897/yr (+$1,741/mo · 133.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$310,326
• − Property taxes: −$15,667
• − Insurance: −$27,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,646
• − Management: −$4,646
• − Depreciation: −$161,164
• Taxable loss: −$466,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$111,859
• After-tax cash flow: $-234,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paradise Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #15675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise Valley, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 17,904
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,904
• Household income: $184,979
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.95%
• Current HPI: 416.0855
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+295.7% since first listed

45 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $5,540,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $5,590,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $5,690,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $5,690,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $5,790,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $5,950,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-08-25 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-03-24 Listed $6,100,000 ARMLS
• 2022-05-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-01-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-12-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-09-06 Listed $5,800,000 ARMLS
• 2018-11-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-10-10 Price Changed $3,800,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-29 Price Changed $3,900,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-27 Price Changed $3,950,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-20 Price Changed $3,999,999 ARMLS
• 2017-11-30 Price Changed $4,150,000 ARMLS
• 2017-10-11 Price Changed $4,200,000 ARMLS
• 2017-08-10 Price Changed $4,250,000 ARMLS
• 2017-07-10 Price Changed $4,350,000 ARMLS
• 2017-06-11 Price Changed $4,450,000 ARMLS
• 2017-05-11 Price Changed $4,550,000 ARMLS
• 2017-04-10 Listed $4,650,000 ARMLS
• 2011-09-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-09-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2011-07-19 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-02-15 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2010-12-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-12-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2010-12-24 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-12-23 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2010-12-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-09-11 Listed $4,995,000 ARMLS
• 2009-08-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-03-27 Listed $5,900,000 ARMLS
• 1998-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,375,000 Public Records
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $229,900 Public Records
• 1988-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 1985-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 1984-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,667 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.