4409 W Vervain Ave · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$399,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,965 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2019 6,330 sqft lot $204/sqft · 17% below area Est $480k · 17% under $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning Taylor Morrison Sterling Model | Built in 2019 | 1,958 Sq Ft | Flex Space | Move-In Ready Welcome to this beautifully designed Sterling model by Taylor Morrison, built in 2019 and offering 1,958 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Combining modern design, energy-efficient construction, and everyday functionality, this immaculate single-story home is a rare opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in-ready home in one of the area's most desirable communities. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the attractive curb appeal, contemporary architecture, and well-maintained exterior. Inside, the highly sought-after Sterling floor plan features an open-concept desig

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Gourmet kitchen
• Raised garden beds

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS
• ENERGY EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• SPACIOUS OWNERS SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available (non-assumable)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $66 covering ground maintenance; Association rules restrict visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats; Community playground; Biking and walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Tandem garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Blown cellulose insulation; Painted exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Block fencing; Sprinklers front and rear with automatic timers; Desert landscaping front and back; Synthetic grass in back; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Natural gas heating; ENERGY STAR qualified heating and cooling equipment
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Low-emissivity dual-pane windows with vinyl frames
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Energy Star rated laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-759 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (46.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (46.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 488 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,460 (46.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,037
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: -14.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4390 W Kirkland Ave	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,973 (+0%)	1mo	$365,000	$185	89
33964 N Rockflower Trl	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,967 (+0%)	1mo	$430,000	$219	86
4448 W Stickleaf Way	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,007 (+2%)	0mo	$450,000	$224	83
33915 N Blue Curl Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,026 (+3%)	0mo	$435,000	$215	81
4456 W Pelotazo Way	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,123 (+8%)	1mo	$435,000	$205	79
4268 W Dayflower Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,116 (+8%)	1mo	$514,300	$243	74
33421 N Bowles Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,871 (-5%)	1mo	$372,500	$199	72
4071 W White Canyon Rd	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,913 (-3%)	1mo	$389,000	$203	67
4548 W Sweetbush Way	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (-7%)	0mo	$435,000	$239	62
4164 W Suncup Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (-7%)	1mo	$567,000	$312	59
4017 W Brenley Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,837 (-6%)	1mo	$455,000	$248	58
4447 W Mountain Laural Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,735 (-12%)	0mo	$395,000	$228	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $169,376
• Equity at exit: $360,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $536,477
• Equity at exit: $777,110

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 488
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,614/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,115

Max offer price $265,978

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-532	-5% $-645	+0% $-759	+5% $-872	+10% $-985
Rent	-10% $-929	-5% $-844	+0% $-759	+5% $-674	+10% $-588
Rate	-1.0pp $-557	-0.5pp $-657	base $-759	+0.5pp $-862	+1.0pp $-968

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4251 W Dayflower Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,490	$0.97	6d	1	0.11mi
4590 W Foldwing DR Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,449	$1.36	4d	1	0.18mi
33948 N Beeblossom Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,850	$1.37	18d	1	0.26mi
4504 W Stonecrop Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,075	$1.15	6d	1	0.27mi
33810 N Mercedes Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,925	$1.28	45d	1	0.31mi
3854 W Carlos Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,775	$1.16	0d	1	0.35mi
3809 W Five Mile Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,895	$1.41	6d	1	0.36mi
3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1852	$1,795	$0.97	45d	1	0.39mi
3877 W Naomi Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2010	$1,850	$0.92	6d	1	0.42mi
3846 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	3.0	2422	$1,949	$0.80	25d	1	0.49mi
33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,975	$1.06	6d	1	0.52mi
34113 N Alison Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,089	$0.86	4d	1	0.53mi
3849 W South Butte Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,846	$0.98	45d	1	0.58mi
3560 W Mesquite Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	12d	1	0.60mi
3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	25d	1	0.61mi
3369 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2617	$2,715	$1.04	0d	1	0.62mi
33993 N Danja Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,450	$1.23	45d	1	0.63mi
33024 N Madison Way Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	16d	1	0.70mi
3194 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1925	$1,908	$0.99	45d	1	0.73mi
3162 W Sunshine Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	23d	1	0.80mi
35155 N Thompson Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$2,320	$2.32	0d	1	0.80mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	14d	1	0.81mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	16d	1	0.81mi
3541 Dreamy Draw Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	25d	1	0.83mi
3047 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,915	$1.32	45d	1	0.85mi
3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	0.88mi
2993 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,700	$1.32	45d	1	0.88mi
34973 N Augite Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2614	$4,350	$1.66	0d	1	0.90mi
33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,980	$1.15	4d	1	0.92mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,860	$1.05	0d	1	0.92mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,955	$1.11	12d	1	0.92mi
35032 N Barrel Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2213	$3,900	$1.76	0d	1	0.92mi
33856 N Cherry Creek Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,850	$0.96	45d	1	0.93mi
4165 W Monika Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	45d	1	1.02mi
2899 W White Canyon Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,950	$0.98	4d	1	1.03mi
2699 W Camp River Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,975	$1.12	45d	1	1.05mi
2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.06mi
4001 W Brass Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,750	$1.13	45d	1	1.12mi
4565 W Hunter Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,370	$1.16	0d	1	1.13mi
4287 W Jeanette Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	19d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $399,999 Coming Soon 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $410,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $419,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $419,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $419,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $419,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $419,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    listed $425,000 Active 2197-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,614 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,640 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,026/yr (+$86/mo · 63.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$1,614
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$16,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,004
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $410,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $419,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $425,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+47.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,614 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.