1216 Erickson Dr · Belmont, PA 15904

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1958 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three bedroom ranch home has easy one floor living with a family room and bar area on the lower level for your enjoyment. The lower level also has a bonus room, laundry room and a workshop. Complete with patio area, oversized shed and garage. Call now to take a tour!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#725 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Richland SD (suburban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #54 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $140k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.01%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,624
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $52,171
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15904

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,754/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Sunapee Dr Johnstown, PA	3.0	2.5	2087	$1,850	$0.89	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $140,000
3. 2026-04-15
   price $150,000
4. 2026-04-08
   listed $160,000 Active
5. 2012-10-31
   soldstatus $84,500 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   This three bedroom ranch home has easy one floor living with a family room and bar area on the lower level for your enjoyment. The lower level also has a bonus room, laundry room and a workshop. Complete with patio area, oversized shed and garage. Call now to take a tour!

6. 2012-10-22
   soldstatus $84,500
7. 2012-09-04
   listed $94,900 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   This three bedroom ranch home has easy one floor living with a family room and bar area on the lower level for your enjoyment. The lower level also has a bonus room, laundry room and a workshop. Complete with patio area, oversized shed and garage. Call now to take a tour!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,754 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,983 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$229/yr (+$19/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,754
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,279
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $5,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland SD
• NCES district ID: 4220250
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,705
• Composite: 54.72/100
• National rank: #1322
• State rank: #54 of 539 in PA

Livability — Belmont

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #725
• US rank: #7198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+47.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $140,000 CSMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $150,000 CSMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $160,000 CSMLS
• 2012-10-31 Sold (MLS) $84,500 CSMLS
• 2012-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 2012-09-04 Listed $94,900 CSMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,754 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.