24503 NW 10th Rd · Newberry, FL 32669

$295,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 2025 4,356 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome inside the Harper, a single-story, four bedroom and two bathroom home, offering 1,665 square feet of luxurious living space. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, creating a perfect space for entertaining with family and friends. With ample room for seating, it's an ideal spot for relaxation and gatherings. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a kitchen island. Whether you're preparing a casual meal or hosting a formal dinner, this kitchen is well-equipped to meet your culinary needs. The primary suite features a private ensuite bathroom with a double vanity and spacious walk-in

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Quartz countertops
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Zoning: PUD; Lot about 0.1 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Guardian Association Management; Monthly HOA fee $100 (required); association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Northeast facing; Under construction (projected completion April 25, 2026)
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: DR Horton INC (Model: Harper); Builder license CRC057592; Permit number 25-0503; Approx. living area 1605 (builder source)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Part of the Avalon development

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newberry Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 661 students, 44% FRL); Newberry High School (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 728 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 418 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $269,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-36,171
• Equity at exit: $44,133

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-11,206
• Equity at exit: $25,592

Cash invested: $82,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,440/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,716

Max offer price $295,990

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,998
• Closing costs: $8,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 NW 248th Dr Newberry, FL	4.0	2.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	21d	1	0.18mi
2181 NW 247th Dr Newberry, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,475	$1.40	21d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $295,990
3. 2026-03-27
   price $294,990
4. 2026-02-23
   status Active
5. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-30
   price $295,990
7. 2025-12-16
   price $298,990
8. 2025-12-10
   listed $302,070 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,580
• − Property taxes: −$4,440
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,798
• − Management: −$2,798
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,611
• Taxable loss: −$2,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$703
• After-tax cash flow: $2,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newberry, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $295,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $294,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $295,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $298,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed $302,070 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid