3475 Cedar Rd · Wolf Lake, MI 49457

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home in Timberline Estates.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.6% in Wolf Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#594 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Holton Public Schools (rural): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #413 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 438 units permitted in Muskegon County in 2024 (115 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Muskegon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.09%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,047
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $26,517
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49457

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending 50-char remark

   Show marketing remark (50 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home in Timberline Estates.

2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending 50-char remark

   Show marketing remark (50 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home in Timberline Estates.

3. 2026-04-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (50 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home in Timberline Estates.

4. 2026-04-22
   listed $85,000 Active 50-char remark

   Show marketing remark (50 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home in Timberline Estates.

5. 2026-04-22
   listed $85,000 Active 50-char remark

   Show marketing remark (50 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home in Timberline Estates.

6. 2026-04-22
   listed $85,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (50 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home in Timberline Estates.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$511
• After-tax cash flow: $2,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and landscaping to improve its curb appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and needs repainting
• Minor Landscaping — Minimal landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Landscaping — Improves rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and needs repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Minimal landscaping	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Improves rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618510
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,008
• Composite: 21.95/100
• National rank: #8219
• State rank: #413 of 540 in MI

Livability — Wolf Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #19391

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,263

Population outlook (Muskegon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,032 people
• By 2030: 173,365 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 168,877 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 160,306 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 134,426 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 98,836 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 14% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Muskegon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.4% · R 50.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.6 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+17.8 2008: D+29.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.52%
• Current HPI: 271.7426
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $85,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $85,000 REALCOMP