1510 Splashing Wave · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$323,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,500 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Kingston floor plan in Caldwell Crossing! This single-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, spanning 2,035 sq. ft. Upon entry, you'll find two secondary bedrooms and a bathroom near the foyer. Each bedroom features a bright window and a tall closet, while the bathroom includes vinyl flooring, a linen nook, and a tub/shower combo. The open-concept family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen are perfect for hosting. The kitchen is equipped with extra counter space, a kitchen island, a tall pantry, and stainless-steel appliances. The utility room, behind the kitchen, offers space for a washer, dryer, and storage. The last secondary bedroom, across fro

Key facts

• L-shaped kitchen
• Kingston floor plan
• Kitchen island

Tags

• KINGSTON FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• TALL PANTRY
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Caldwell Crossing HOA); HOA fee $900 annually; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car)
• Security: Leased security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by D.R. Horton; Construction materials: Brick and cement siding; Year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Quartz counters; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $323,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,995.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $323k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $271,918 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,995
• List price: $323,490
• Delta: -2.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1523 Splashing Wave Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-0%)	0mo	$349,490	$172	97
1419 Splashing Wave Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-0%)	1mo	$319,990	$158	97
9111 Serene Haven Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,035 (0%)	1mo	$319,490	$157	94
1522 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+0%)	1mo	$331,000	$162	92
1507 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+0%)	1mo	$354,490	$174	91
9114 Serene Hvn	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+0%)	1mo	$352,865	$173	89
9019 Rose Water	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,042 (+0%)	2mo	$344,490	$169	89
9007 Serene Hvn	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+0%)	2mo	$356,865	$175	88
9134 Sunset Marina Way	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,831 (-10%)	2mo	$311,990	$170	71
9130 Sunset Marina Way	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,780 (-12%)	2mo	$334,990	$188	69
9107 Serene Hvn	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,322 (+14%)	2mo	$355,865	$153	68
9715 Blue Sapphire Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+4%)	0mo	$272,500	$128	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-75,230
• Equity at exit: $49,651

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-110,486
• Equity at exit: $28,791

Cash invested: $93,239 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,995/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $299,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-113	+0% $-228	+5% $-343	+10% $-458
Rent	-10% $-443	-5% $-336	+0% $-228	+5% $-121	+10% $-13
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-143	base $-228	+0.5pp $-314	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,249
• Closing costs: $9,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	44d	1	0.37mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	0d	1	0.46mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	13d	1	0.49mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	44d	1	0.57mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	23d	1	0.82mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.88mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	44d	1	1.01mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	44d	1	1.09mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	44d	1	1.13mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	18d	1	1.13mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	19d	1	1.13mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	44d	1	1.14mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,669	$1.61	0d	20	1.17mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.22mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	44d	7	1.24mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	0d	6	1.24mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	44d	1	1.28mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2506	$2,550	$1.02	44d	1	1.39mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	44d	1	1.39mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	0d	1	1.40mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	0d	1	1.40mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	44d	1	1.42mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	4d	1	1.45mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,775	$1.82	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 784-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $323,490 Active 784-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,653
• − Property taxes: −$4,995
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,610
• − Management: −$2,610
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,687
• Taxable loss: −$8,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,038
• After-tax cash flow: $-699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Iowa Colony, Texas, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it suitable for a family. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean the gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $323,490 HARMLS