2254 Lake Heritage Dr · Tallahassee, FL 32311

$160,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $206k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Surprising amount of space in this home! Needs a good amount of TLC but this could be an awesome home for investor, first time buyer, anyone! HUGE lot with beautiful trees!

Key facts

• Trusses repaired
• New roof
• New garage door

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• TRUSSES REPAIRED
• NEW GARAGE DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $160k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.83%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,124
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2217 Lake Heritage Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+1%)	8mo	$219,000	$203	87
2083 Little River Ln	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-6%)	13mo	$223,000	$221	74
2090 Little River Ln	0.12mi	3/1.0	987 (-8%)	10mo	$190,000	$193	72
2164 Portsmouth Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,032 (-3%)	7mo	$195,000	$189	56
2682 Chateau Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+10%)	21mo	$209,900	$178	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $12,023
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $74,696
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32311

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,258/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2071 Little River Ln Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,800	$1.75	21d	1	0.08mi
2555 Chateau Ln #3 Tallahassee, FL	2.0	1.0	909	$1,050	$1.16	13d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $160,000 Active
17. 2015-06-19
    soldstatus $50,000 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Surprising amount of space in this home! Needs a good amount of TLC but this could be an awesome home for investor, first time buyer, anyone! HUGE lot with beautiful trees!

18. 2015-04-14
    listed $50,000 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Surprising amount of space in this home! Needs a good amount of TLC but this could be an awesome home for investor, first time buyer, anyone! HUGE lot with beautiful trees!

19. 1993-05-18
    soldstatus $72,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,258
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $3,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$914
• After-tax cash flow: $5,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,905
• Household income: $81,243
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 795.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 27% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.68%
• Current HPI: 238.8804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+121.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $160,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-06-19 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CATRS
• 2015-04-14 Listed $50,000 CATRS
• 1993-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $72,100 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,258 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.