2015 Cains Mill Rd · Privateer, SC 29154

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · Other

Built 2026 Poor condition 1.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Condition / age +0.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This house is built exclusively for the SC Housing "Made it Home! Program" Eligible home buyers may receive up to $25,000 in forgivable down payment and closing cost assistance through one of SC Housing's approved lending partners. Contact an approved SC Housing Lender for more info.

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#258 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pocalla Springs Elementary (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #539 of 597 statewide, top 91%, 652 students, 100% FRL); Furman Middle (math 9% / reading 23%, grade F, #196 of 229 statewide, top 87%, 729 students, 100% FRL); Lakewood High (math 12% / reading 67%, grade F, #180 of 196 statewide, top 93%, 1,036 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $154,278 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-40,920
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-41,077
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29154

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $176,362

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-94	+0% $-163	+5% $-232	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-224	+0% $-163	+5% $-102	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-112	base $-163	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-29
   listed $199,999
2. 2026-05-29
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $-647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Poor 10/100 Extensive rehab

This property is under construction and requires extensive renovation to become move-in ready. The highest-ROI updates include completing the construction, finishing the interior, and enhancing the curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Frame structure visible
• Major exterior — Frame structure visible
• Major interior walls — Frame structure visible
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Frame structure visible

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete construction and finish interior walls, flooring, and HVAC — Completion of construction will make the property move-in ready and suitable for both resale and rental
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced curb appeal will attract more buyers and renters
• Both Kitchen and bathroom finishes — Completed kitchen and bathrooms will increase the property's appeal and functionality
• Both HVAC and electrical upgrades — Upgraded systems will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Frame structure visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · Frame structure visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Frame structure visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Frame structure visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete construction and finish interior walls, flooring, and HVAC — Completion of construction will make the property move-in ready and suitable for both resale and rental ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced curb appeal will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom finishes — Completed kitchen and bathrooms will increase the property's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both HVAC and electrical upgrades — Upgraded systems will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter 01
• NCES district ID: 4503902
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,423
• Composite: 19.45/100
• National rank: #8775
• State rank: #64 of 80 in SC

Livability — Privateer

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #20541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumter County · 76,912 people
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• Population (ZIP): 29,454
• Household income: $62,772
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,585 people
• By 2030: 102,282 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 96,258 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 89,592 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 74,715 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 60,235 · -42.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 36% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 15.4pp · 2024: 4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.9 2020: D+13.0 2016: D+12.0 2012: D+17.5 2008: D+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.65%
• Current HPI: 157.8545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Delisted — SBOR
• 2026-05-29 Listed $199,999 SBOR