18141 Chalet Dr · Germantown, MD 20874

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is for someone who can fix up the home. In good condition, this home would sell for $280,000. It will need new carpeting, paint and some plumbing problems in the bathroom. I washer and dryer put in 2024, vanity in one bathroom. The HVAC works fine but should be replaced soon.

Key facts

• Built 1988
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $205k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in Germantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#36 in MD, #1,312 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-22,459
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,018
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20874

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13123 Wonderland Way Apt 3 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.5	1132	$2,100	$1.86	44d	1	0.04mi
18140 Chalet Dr Apt 204 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,875	$1.77	15d	1	0.04mi
18131 Chalet Dr Unit 24-103 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,900	$1.74	44d	1	0.04mi
13200 Chalet Pl Unit 10-102 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	24d	1	0.06mi
13200 Chalet Pl Apt 102 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	24d	1	0.06mi
13201 Chalet Pl Germantown, MD	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,295	$2.16	22d	1	0.07mi
18131 Chalet Dr Apt 301 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,899	$1.79	24d	1	0.07mi
13106 Wonderland Way Unit 1 Germantown, MD	1.0	1.0	723	$1,750	$2.42	19d	1	0.09mi
18050 Chalet Dr Unit 14-103 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,900	$1.74	19d	1	0.09mi
18230 Swiss Cir Unit 1-9 Germantown, MD	1.0	1.0	723	$1,650	$2.28	5d	1	0.11mi
13257 Wonderland Way #302 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,075	$1.87	44d	1	0.14mi
18241 Swiss Cir Unit 5 BY Germantown, MD	2.0	2.5	1102	$2,300	$2.09	5d	1	0.15mi
18310 Timko Ln #99 Germantown, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	8d	1	0.16mi
18065 Cottage Garden Dr Germantown, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,923	$2.35	2d	8	0.22mi
13036 Mill House Ct Germantown, MD	3.0	4.0	1144	$2,950	$2.58	24d	1	0.25mi
13103 Millhaven Pl Unit 8E Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1146	$2,225	$1.94	44d	1	0.32mi
13414 Daventry Way Germantown, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,412	$2.38	3d	13	0.35mi
13205 Cloppers Mill Dr Unit 13D Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	980	$2,095	$2.14	22d	1	0.38mi
18501 Owl Run Way Germantown, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,995	$2.66	22d	1	0.46mi
18701 Sparkling Water Dr Unit 13D Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,000	$1.95	44d	1	0.51mi
18830 Harmony Woods Ln Germantown, MD	3.0	2.5	1364	$3,000	$2.20	44d	1	0.55mi
13611 Ale House Cir Germantown, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,897	$2.79	2d	11	0.56mi
18715 Sparkling Water Dr Unit 9-302 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1437	$2,300	$1.60	44d	1	0.56mi
18805 Sparkling Water Dr Apt 203 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1183	$2,750	$2.32	44d	1	0.60mi
12712 Sesame Seed Ct Germantown, MD	3.0	1.0	1005	$2,250	$2.24	44d	1	0.60mi
18809 Sparkling Water Dr Unit T-3 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1161	$2,150	$1.85	4d	1	0.62mi
18811 Sparkling Water Dr Unit 5-201 Germantown, MD	3.0	2.0	1183	$2,200	$1.86	24d	1	0.63mi
18815 Sparkling Water Dr Unit 4B Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,999	$1.95	44d	1	0.64mi
18711 Paprika Ct Germantown, MD	3.0	1.5	1248	$2,400	$1.92	5d	1	0.71mi
12622 Grey Eagle Ct Germantown, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	861	$2,095	$2.43	1d	14	1.02mi
18832 Bent Willow Cir Germantown, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$2,171	$1.99	2d	20	1.05mi
18905 Lark Song Ter Germantown, MD	3.0	2.5	1377	$2,550	$1.85	44d	1	1.16mi
12309 Silvergate Way Unit 908C Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	882	$1,850	$2.10	24d	1	1.16mi
19030 Partridge Wood Dr Unit 19030 Germantown, MD	3.0	3.0	1060	$3,000	$2.83	5d	1	1.19mi
18513 Black Kettle Dr Boyds, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	22d	1	1.21mi
12221 Eagles Nest Ct Unit B Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1036	$2,000	$1.93	44d	1	1.25mi
12221 Eagles Nest Ct Unit B Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1036	$2,000	$1.93	20d	1	1.25mi
12220 Eagles Nest Ct Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1087	$1,825	$1.68	5d	2	1.25mi
19228 Circle Gate Dr Germantown, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	1205	$1,727	$1.43	2d	24	1.26mi
18704 Caledonia Ct Unit B Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,995	$1.93	8d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 287-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $205,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$148
• After-tax cash flow: $2,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, including new flooring, paint, and bathroom fixtures, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major flooring — Severe wear and unevenness
• Major paint — Visible wear and unevenness
• Major bathroom fixtures — No visible fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new flooring — Fresh flooring enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale paint job — Fresh paint improves the home's appearance and value
• Both bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
flooring · Severe wear and unevenness	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Visible wear and unevenness	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · No visible fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new flooring — Fresh flooring enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale paint job — Fresh paint improves the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400480
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $97,191
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4889
• State rank: #3 of 24 in MD

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1312

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, MD
• County: Montgomery County · 961,106 people
• City population: 89,144
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 62,738
• Household income: $115,022
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1766.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,173,231 people
• By 2030: 1,237,402 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 1,365,115 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,491,592 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 1,803,893 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 2,035,619 · +73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 27% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 18% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.3) · D 75.2% · R 21.9% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.7pp toward D · 2008: 44.6pp · 2024: 53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.3 2020: D+59.6 2016: D+55.5 2012: D+43.4 2008: D+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.90%
• Current HPI: 262.1762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $205,000 FSBO.com