Is Magnolia Plan in Lavon, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.2% cap rate and $-586/mo modeled cash flow at a $276,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Magnolia Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,202/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.2

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.4/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +3.6/10.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.7/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$276,990

Magnolia Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · SingleFamily · 791 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Magnolia is a single-story home that boasts 1,571-1,619 square feet of functional living space, and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept Smart Series design is built with your lifestyle in mind!

Key facts

Open-concept design
Single-story home
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-586 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (9.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (20.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $220k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 750 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 791 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,201 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 791 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 4.20%
Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
DSCR: 0.67
GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $336,516
List price: $276,990
Delta: -17.69%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
746 Gentle Bird Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,571 (0%)	0mo	$272,990	$174	80
436 Silent Pond Park	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+5%)	2mo	$299,990	$182	74
489 Pleasant Field Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+5%)	3mo	$294,990	$179	68
418 Silent Pond Park	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+8%)	2mo	$284,990	$168	67
657 Glee Stem Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+1%)	1mo	$288,990	$183	66
755 Hidden Feather Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+8%)	2mo	$288,990	$170	61
292 Bright Alcove Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+12%)	1mo	$337,990	$191	58
471 Sweet Spring Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,525 (-3%)	3mo	$259,970	$170	57
1021 Lovely Day Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,691 (+8%)	2mo	$336,960	$199	56
635 Dove Haven Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-8%)	2mo	$295,990	$204	55
654 Walkabout Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-10%)	2mo	$267,990	$190	54
1169 Little Hills Way	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+15%)	1mo	$326,990	$182	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.3%
Equity multiple: 0.03×
Total profit: $-91,819
Equity at exit: $50,176

10-year hold

IRR: -29.7%
Equity multiple: -0.36×
Total profit: $-127,878
Equity at exit: $29,096

Cash invested: $94,224 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 115 active · 25 under contract
Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $309,900 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market: 85 d
This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +14.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

Home prices YoY: -9.9%
Active inventory: 750
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,202 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,765
Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,048/yr
Insurance: −$140
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
Net cashflow: $-586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,944

Max offer price $251,721

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-353	-5% $-470	+0% $-586	+5% $-702	+10% $-819
Rent	-10% $-760	-5% $-673	+0% $-586	+5% $-499	+10% $-412
Rate	-1.0pp $-417	-0.5pp $-500	base $-586	+0.5pp $-673	+1.0pp $-762

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $84,129
Closing costs: $10,095
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
361 Elevon Pkwy Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,399	$1.16	41d	1	0.07mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	93d	1	0.07mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	93d	1	0.22mi
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	42d	1	0.41mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,718	$1.67	4d	20	0.44mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	48d	1	0.55mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,295	$1.09	1d	1	0.58mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	12d	1	0.60mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 9107 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,425	$1.18	7d	1	0.70mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	42d	1	0.71mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	19d	1	0.75mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,999	$1.48	37d	1	0.75mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,063	$2.04	0d	72	0.76mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	93d	1	0.81mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	73d	1	0.85mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,095	$1.31	12d	1	0.87mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	42d	1	0.89mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	3d	1	0.90mi
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	12d	1	0.90mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	52d	1	0.91mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	7d	1	0.91mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	93d	1	0.93mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	93d	1	0.93mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	93d	1	0.98mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	73d	1	1.11mi
242 Maverick Ct Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,050	$0.91	19d	1	1.16mi
223 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,281	$1.07	21d	1	1.19mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,333	$2.68	0d	80	1.24mi
584 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2177	$2,050	$0.94	4d	1	1.40mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,099	$1.16	1d	1	1.41mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	93d	1	1.41mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	70d	1	1.43mi
400 Lake Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,000	$1.10	25d	1	1.43mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	93d	1	1.45mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	93d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $276,990 Active 791 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $276,990 Active 789 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $276,990 Active 788 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $276,990 Active 787 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $276,990 Active 786 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $276,990 Active 783 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $276,990 Active 781 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $276,990 Active 780 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $276,990 Active 778 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $276,990 Active 776 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $276,990 Active 775 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $276,990 Active 774 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $276,990 Active 773 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $276,990 Active 772 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $276,990 Active 770 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $276,990 Active 769 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $276,990 Active 768 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $276,990 Active 767 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $276,990 Active 766 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $276,990 Active 765 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $276,990 Active 764 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $276,990 Active 763 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $276,990 Active 762 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $276,990 Active 761 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $276,990 Active 759 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $276,990 Active 758 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $276,990 Active 757 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $276,990 Active 756 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $276,990 Active 755 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $276,990 Active 754 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $276,990 Active 753 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $276,990 Active 752 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $276,990 Active 751 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $276,990 Active 750 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $276,990 Active 748 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $276,990 Active 746 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $276,990 Active 744 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $276,990 Active 743 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $276,990 Active 740 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $276,990 Active 739 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $276,990 Active 738 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $276,990 Active 737 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $276,990 Active 735 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $276,990 Active 734 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $276,990 Active 731 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $276,990 Active 730 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $276,990 Active 729 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $276,990 Active 726 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $276,990 Active 725 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $276,990 Active 724 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,424
− Mortgage interest: −$18,850
− Property taxes: −$5,048
− Insurance: −$1,683
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
− Management: −$2,114
− Depreciation: −$9,790
Taxable loss: −$13,174

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,162
After-tax cash flow: $-3,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Lavon, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Community ISD
NCES district ID: 4814850
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $71,841
Composite: 31.58/100
National rank: #5951
State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

Score: 66/100
State rank: #588
US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population: 6,989
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 6,989
Household income: $132,101
Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
Current HPI: 221.0
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-01-08 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
2025-10-23 Price Changed $275,990 Zillow
2025-09-05 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
2025-03-21 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
2024-08-14 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
2024-06-08 Listed $317,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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