351 Grady · Fairfield Bay, AR 72153

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 2004 1.60 ac lot $81/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath home on over an acre of land near the beautiful Greers Ferry Lake. Fenced back yard. Very nice level lot. Needs some updating and would make a great weekend retreat or full time residence. Call today to have a look.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Level lot
• Over an acre of land

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• LEVEL LOT
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• NEAR GREERS FERRY LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-44/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clinton School District (rural): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #41 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cowsert Elementary School (math 57% / reading 40%, grade D, #109 of 454 statewide, top 25%, 613 students, 100% FRL); Clinton Jr High School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade D, #65 of 201 statewide, top 34%, 309 students, 100% FRL); Clinton High School (math 34% / reading 50%, grade F, #38 of 292 statewide, top 14%, 416 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,175 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,625
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -63.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
172 Heather Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+10%)	7mo	$265,000	$150	54
132 Heidi Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-6%)	8mo	$264,900	$177	53
300 Sally Ann Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+4%)	21mo	$275,000	$165	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $43,253
• Equity at exit: $88,002

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $126,148
• Equity at exit: $165,371

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72153

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,375

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $41	+0% $-4	+5% $-49	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $-48	+0% $-4	+5% $41	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $29	base $-4	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Price Change 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on market $129,900 Price Change 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $144,900 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $144,900 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $144,900 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,900 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,900 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 140 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 139 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 138 DOM
19. 2026-02-26
    price $144,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home on over an acre of land near the beautiful Greers Ferry Lake. Fenced back yard. Very nice level lot. Needs some updating and would make a great weekend retreat or full time residence. Call today to have a look.

20. 2026-01-12
    listed $149,900 New Listing 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home on over an acre of land near the beautiful Greers Ferry Lake. Fenced back yard. Very nice level lot. Needs some updating and would make a great weekend retreat or full time residence. Call today to have a look.

21. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus $95,000
22. 2022-08-22
    soldstatus $95,000 Sold 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Come check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on 1 acre! This home has spacious rooms and offers and open concept floor plan for the living room and kitchen. A nice dining area makes for a great place for family gatherings. The wood burning fireplace in the living room adds a unique feature to this home. There is a big laundry room with plenty of space as well. The large master bedroom has a master bathroom with a great walk-in closet.

23. 2022-06-28
    status Under Contract 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Come check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on 1 acre! This home has spacious rooms and offers and open concept floor plan for the living room and kitchen. A nice dining area makes for a great place for family gatherings. The wood burning fireplace in the living room adds a unique feature to this home. There is a big laundry room with plenty of space as well. The large master bedroom has a master bathroom with a great walk-in closet.

24. 2022-01-22
    price $90,000 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Come check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on 1 acre! This home has spacious rooms and offers and open concept floor plan for the living room and kitchen. A nice dining area makes for a great place for family gatherings. The wood burning fireplace in the living room adds a unique feature to this home. There is a big laundry room with plenty of space as well. The large master bedroom has a master bathroom with a great walk-in closet.

25. 2021-09-20
    listed $110,000 New Listing 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Come check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on 1 acre! This home has spacious rooms and offers and open concept floor plan for the living room and kitchen. A nice dining area makes for a great place for family gatherings. The wood burning fireplace in the living room adds a unique feature to this home. There is a big laundry room with plenty of space as well. The large master bedroom has a master bathroom with a great walk-in closet.

26. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus $38,000
27. 2005-08-26
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clinton School District
• NCES district ID: 0504410
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $32,018
• Composite: 37.34/100
• National rank: #4438
• State rank: #41 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 3,982

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.76%
• Current HPI: 273.5544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1349.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $144,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $149,900 CARMLS
• 2022-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-22 Sold (MLS) $95,000 CARMLS
• 2022-06-28 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-01-22 Price Changed $90,000 CARMLS
• 2021-09-20 Listed $110,000 CARMLS
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $50 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.