1242 Oliver St · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$270,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,534 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1846 5,331 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Must see 6 bedroom home, new windows, furnace 2013, new roof, new plumbing, newer bathroom. All rooms on first floor redone, except kitchen.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Brand new appliances
• Remodeled kitchens

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• FULL BASEMENT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• BRAND NEW DRIVEWAYS
• REMODELED KITCHENS
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.2-bath units multifamily listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $372/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,180/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $270k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1846 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $261,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1846 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.80%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $13,336
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $115,055
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,885/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,239

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $896	-5% $820	+0% $743	+5% $667	+10% $591
Rent	-10% $492	-5% $618	+0% $743	+5% $869	+10% $995
Rate	-1.0pp $879	-0.5pp $812	base $743	+0.5pp $673	+1.0pp $602

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.2	$3,180
Total (2 units)			$3,180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   status Active
3. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-19
   listed $270,000 Active
5. 2025-02-25
   soldstatus $116,000
6. 2024-11-11
   historical
7. 2024-11-01
   listed $130,000 Active
8. 2014-03-17
   soldstatus $58,000 140-char remark

   Show marketing remark (140 chars)

   Must see 6 bedroom home, new windows, furnace 2013, new roof, new plumbing, newer bathroom. All rooms on first floor redone, except kitchen.

9. 2014-03-17
   soldstatus $58,000

   Show marketing remark (140 chars)

   Must see 6 bedroom home, new windows, furnace 2013, new roof, new plumbing, newer bathroom. All rooms on first floor redone, except kitchen.

10. 2014-01-10
    listed $62,900 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Must see 6 bedroom home, new windows, furnace 2013, new roof, new plumbing, newer bathroom. All rooms on first floor redone, except kitchen.

11. 2013-07-10
    listed $62,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,885 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,724 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$839/yr (+$70/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,885
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,053
• − Management: −$3,053
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable income: $4,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $7,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+329.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $270,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-11 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-17 Sold (MLS) $58,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-01-10 Listed $62,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-07-10 Listed $62,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,885 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.