109 Sand Oak Blvd · Panama City Beach, FL 32413

$295,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Townhouse public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2008 Est $309k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful townhome located in Whisper Dunes on the west end of Panama City Beach, FL. High ceilings, Concrete block construction on 1st floor, Upgraded fixtures throughout, Maple cabinets in kitchen, Corian solid surface counter tops, upgraded tile and carpet throughout home. Includes a one car attached garage, covered porches, 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, walk-in closet, Nice patio in backyard, Community pool and clubhouse, and many extras. This unit is in pristine condition. Furniture can also be purchased with this townhome for an additional price. Does not include all furnishings.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 2008

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Community gazebo; Community picnic area; Community pool; Community park

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Paved parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Underground utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: Property has multiple stories; Entry level information not specified; Orientation/facing direction not specified
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: Patio; Covered patio/porch; Porch; Sprinkler system; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on upper level; Additional bedrooms on second level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Interior steps; Shower only; Upper level primary; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Bay Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 313 students, 50% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,485 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Sand Oak Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,560 (0%)	2mo	$295,000	$189	93
221 Sand Oak Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,560 (0%)	4mo	$314,000	$201	90
209 Sand Oak Blvd	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,560 (0%)	7mo	$308,750	$198	88
105 Sand Oak Blvd	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,577 (+1%)	12mo	$276,950	$176	86
329 Sand Oak Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,608 (+3%)	0mo	$316,000	$197	85
309 Sand Oak Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,560 (0%)	8mo	$280,000	$179	84
205 Sand Oak Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,577 (+1%)	14mo	$270,000	$171	81
102 Fox Glove Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,496 (-4%)	12mo	$334,000	$223	77
347 Sand Oak Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,526 (-2%)	14mo	$335,000	$220	75
204 Sand Oak Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,713 (+10%)	5mo	$320,000	$187	72
349 Sand Oak Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,526 (-2%)	19mo	$335,000	$220	71
96 Fox Glove Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,496 (-4%)	23mo	$340,000	$227	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-32,346
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-26,668
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,977/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,428

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $520	-5% $437	+0% $353	+5% $270	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $240	+0% $353	+5% $467	+10% $580
Rate	-1.0pp $502	-0.5pp $428	base $353	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
238 Oleander Dr Unit 1462121P Panama City, FL	4.0	4.0	1732	$4,298	$2.48	15d	1	0.26mi
216 Rose Ln Unit A Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,175	$1.70	15d	1	0.36mi
100 Downing St #13 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,950	$1.43	23d	1	0.38mi
121 Christmas Tree Ln Unit 1511625P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$11,089	$7.41	23d	1	0.40mi
21101 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,956	$1.95	15d	12	0.79mi
21310 Pompano Ave Unit 1511639P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1883	$6,011	$3.19	15d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $295,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $295,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,977 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,977 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$2,977
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,760
• − Management: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$139
• After-tax cash flow: $4,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+43.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $295,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-26 Sold (MLS) $200,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-04-18 Listed $206,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,977 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.