105 Beach Blvd Unit E · Winchester Bay, OR 97467

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 1982 Fair condition $57/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

It will be a short walk from your front door in Winchester Bay to all the Salmon Harbor restaurants, local shops and fishing! The convenience of being minutes from the marina and harbor is what really makes this home stand out. This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom manufactured home is in great condition and ready for it's new owner. An open kitchen and dining area leads into a nice sized living room. All appliances in the kitchen, washer/dryer and any furniture are included in the sale of the home. Newer HVAC, roof membrane and windows. Must be park approved first, space rent is $650 monthly which includes water, sewer and trash. Drive by and take a look at the park, there are only a few permanent homes here. From fishing and crabbing, to riding and playing on the dunes, come and see all the amenities this area of the Oregon coast has to offer!

Key facts

• Built 1982
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#290 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Reedsport SD 105 (town): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #143 of 183 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.79%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,452
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -55.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Riggs Hill Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0	672 (-14%)	22mo	$151,500	$225	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $33,382
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $81,493
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97467

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-26
   listed $45,000 Active 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   It will be a short walk from your front door in Winchester Bay to all the Salmon Harbor restaurants, local shops and fishing! The convenience of being minutes from the marina and harbor is what really makes this home stand out. This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom manufactured home is in great condition and ready for it's new owner. An open kitchen and dining area leads into a nice sized living room. All appliances in the kitchen, washer/dryer and any furniture are included in the sale of the home. Newer HVAC, roof membrane and windows. Must be park approved first, space rent is $650 monthly which includes water, sewer and trash. Drive by and take a look at the park, there are only a few permanent homes here. From fishing and crabbing, to riding and playing on the dunes, come and see all the amenities this area of the Oregon coast has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥80°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,772
• After-tax cash flow: $5,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its interior and exterior, but is in fair condition and ready for a new owner. A fresh coat of paint and new flooring would significantly enhance its value and appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn but not damaged.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Worn but functional.
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance.
• Minor Flooring — Worn carpet.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint and flooring updates — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both New flooring — Improves comfort and resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn but not damaged.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Worn but functional.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Flooring · Worn carpet.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$4,500–24,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint and flooring updates — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves comfort and resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reedsport SD 105
• NCES district ID: 4110410
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,496
• Composite: 31.47/100
• National rank: #11187
• State rank: #143 of 183 in OR

Livability — Winchester Bay

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #290
• US rank: #19406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester Bay, OR
• Population (ZIP): 5,300

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.19%
• Current HPI: 345.8251
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $45,000 RMLS