405 W Thomas St · Bay City, MI 48706

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1900 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors! Perfect for flipper, or fix it up and rent it out. Owner just received possession of this property and has never lived in it, so has limited knowledge. The interior was just primed with paint, all the flooring has been removed. New toilet installed. 1 car detached garage, partially fenced yard, 2 car wide driveway, 3 bedrooms (with one on the first floor), the 2nd floor has attic storage. Crawl space access in the laundry room. Water has been turned off at the meter.

Key facts

• Crawl space access
• Attic storage
• New toilet installed

Tags

• INTERIOR PRIMED WITH PAINT
• NEW TOILET INSTALLED
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• CRAWL SPACE ACCESS
• ATTIC STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot acreage approximately 0.11 acre; Frontage approximately 50 feet; Zoned residential

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas; Electric service (implied)
• Home design: Residential 1 1/2-story home; Built in 1900; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Crawl foundation; 1 1/2-story structure built in 1900
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Fenced yard; Sidewalks; Street lights; Located on a road (main street, city limits)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (14 x 10) with wood flooring
• Bedrooms: First floor bedroom (10 x 10) with wood flooring; Second floor bedroom (14 x 13) with wood flooring; Second floor bedroom (approx. 10 wide) with wood flooring
• Flooring: Wood flooring throughout primary living areas and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Natural gas heat/fuel; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Main floor full bathroom; Porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $45k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.79%
• DSCR: 3.62
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,155
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 W Jenny St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-5%)	3mo	$100,000	$81	84
312 S Barclay St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,271 (-2%)	7mo	$160,000	$126	75
203 W Jenny St	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,233 (-5%)	7mo	$190,000	$154	72
600 S Wenona Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+6%)	8mo	$42,000	$31	71
315 S Alp St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,223 (-6%)	6mo	$130,000	$106	70
509 S Dewitt St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-7%)	7mo	$104,000	$87	67
301 S Alp St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-8%)	9mo	$129,950	$109	67
316 S Woodbridge Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,418 (+10%)	2mo	$65,000	$46	65
709 N Wenona Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,436 (+11%)	2mo	$30,000	$21	64
207 Main St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-7%)	5mo	$148,900	$124	60
1306 S Erie St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,219 (-6%)	2mo	$163,900	$134	51
1307 Raymond St	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,414 (+9%)	6mo	$184,900	$131	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $32,008
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $78,617
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,437/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $473

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	1.22mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $44,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 494-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $44,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,437 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,437 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,437
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $7,147
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,715
• After-tax cash flow: $5,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-04-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-04-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-10-08 Sold (MLS) $27,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-09-22 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-08-22 Listed $72,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-05-26 Sold (MLS) $36,250 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-04-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-04-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-04-02 Listed $36,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-02-16 Listed $45,832 REALCOMP
• 2006-02-16 Listed $45,832 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-02-16 Listed $47,250 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-01-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-01-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-09-22 Listed $51,382 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-09-22 Listed $51,382 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,437 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.