17 Ellis Ave · Troy, TX 76579

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1962 0.31 ac lot $114/sqft · 44% below area Est $225k · 44% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect for first-time homebuyers or a smart rental investment, this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers 1,092 square feet of comfortable living space on just over a quarter acre in Troy. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a peaceful creek, the property provides plenty of room to relax, grow, or even expand. Inside, matching flooring flows throughout the main areas, complemented by cozy carpet in the bedrooms and ceiling fans for year-round comfort. A covered carport offers convenient parking, while a dedicated laundry room adds everyday practicality. Being sold AS IS, this home is ready for its next chapter. Ideally located near I-35, with quick access to Temple and Waco, and an easy drive to Fort Hood, Austin, and Dallas—this is a rare opportunity you won’t want to miss. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Quick access to i-35
• Covered carport
• Peaceful creek

Tags

• MATURE TREES
• PEACEFUL CREEK
• COVERED CARPORT
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-35
• EASY DRIVE TO FORT HOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.0% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#307 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Troy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #257 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edna Bigham Mays El (421 students, 63% FRL); Raymond Mays Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 382 students, 52% FRL); Troy H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 487 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,808
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -44.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 Aikman Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+6%)	3mo	$195,000	$169	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,797
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $22,254
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76579

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,454 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,814/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,087

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $325	+0% $290	+5% $254	+10% $219
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $232	+0% $290	+5% $347	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $352	-0.5pp $321	base $290	+0.5pp $257	+1.0pp $224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 W Main St Troy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	15d	3	0.40mi
522 Campus St Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,525	$1.27	45d	1	0.60mi
618 Campus St Unit 1 Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,500	$1.28	15d	1	0.62mi
1005 Leah Dr Unit B Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,400	$1.08	22d	1	0.67mi
1104 Leah Dr Unit A Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,695	$1.31	15d	1	0.68mi
205 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,395	$1.13	22d	1	0.88mi
203 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,395	$1.13	15d	1	0.90mi
204b Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	15d	1	0.91mi
206 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	22d	1	0.91mi
206 Sparrow Cv Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	15d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $125,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,500 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,500 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,500 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,500 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,500 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-02-23
    listed $144,500 Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Perfect for first-time homebuyers or a smart rental investment, this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers 1,092 square feet of comfortable living space on just over a quarter acre in Troy. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a peaceful creek, the property provides plenty of room to relax, grow, or even expand. Inside, matching flooring flows throughout the main areas, complemented by cozy carpet in the bedrooms and ceiling fans for year-round comfort. A covered carport offers convenient parking, while a dedicated laundry room adds everyday practicality. Being sold AS IS, this home is ready for its next chapter. Ideally located near I-35, with quick access to Temple and Waco, and an easy drive to Fort Hood, Austin, and Dallas—this is a rare opportunity you won’t want to miss. Schedule your tour today!

18. 2026-02-02
    status Active 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Perfect for first-time homebuyers or a smart rental investment, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,092 square feet of comfortable living space on just over a quarter acre in Troy. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a peaceful creek, the property provides plenty of room to relax, grow, or even expand. Inside, matching flooring flows throughout the main areas, complemented by cozy carpet in the bedrooms and ceiling fans for year-round comfort. A covered carport offers convenient parking, while a dedicated laundry room adds everyday practicality. Being sold AS IS, this home is ready for its next chapter. Ideally located near I-35, with quick access to Temple and Waco, and an easy drive to Fort Hood, Austin, and Dallas—this is a rare opportunity you won’t want to miss. Schedule your tour today!

19. 2026-01-31
    historical 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Perfect for first-time homebuyers or a smart rental investment, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,092 square feet of comfortable living space on just over a quarter acre in Troy. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a peaceful creek, the property provides plenty of room to relax, grow, or even expand. Inside, matching flooring flows throughout the main areas, complemented by cozy carpet in the bedrooms and ceiling fans for year-round comfort. A covered carport offers convenient parking, while a dedicated laundry room adds everyday practicality. Being sold AS IS, this home is ready for its next chapter. Ideally located near I-35, with quick access to Temple and Waco, and an easy drive to Fort Hood, Austin, and Dallas—this is a rare opportunity you won’t want to miss. Schedule your tour today!

20. 2026-01-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Perfect for first-time homebuyers or a smart rental investment, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,092 square feet of comfortable living space on just over a quarter acre in Troy. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a peaceful creek, the property provides plenty of room to relax, grow, or even expand. Inside, matching flooring flows throughout the main areas, complemented by cozy carpet in the bedrooms and ceiling fans for year-round comfort. A covered carport offers convenient parking, while a dedicated laundry room adds everyday practicality. Being sold AS IS, this home is ready for its next chapter. Ideally located near I-35, with quick access to Temple and Waco, and an easy drive to Fort Hood, Austin, and Dallas—this is a rare opportunity you won’t want to miss. Schedule your tour today!

21. 2025-11-18
    status Active
22. 2025-11-11
    historical Active Option Contract
23. 2025-10-02
    price $144,500

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Perfect for first-time homebuyers or a smart rental investment, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,092 square feet of comfortable living space on just over a quarter acre in Troy. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a peaceful creek, the property provides plenty of room to relax, grow, or even expand. Inside, matching flooring flows throughout the main areas, complemented by cozy carpet in the bedrooms and ceiling fans for year-round comfort. A covered carport offers convenient parking, while a dedicated laundry room adds everyday practicality. Being sold AS IS, this home is ready for its next chapter. Ideally located near I-35, with quick access to Temple and Waco, and an easy drive to Fort Hood, Austin, and Dallas—this is a rare opportunity you won’t want to miss. Schedule your tour today!

24. 2025-10-02
    price $144,500 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Perfect for first-time homebuyers or a smart rental investment, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,092 square feet of comfortable living space on just over a quarter acre in Troy. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a peaceful creek, the property provides plenty of room to relax, grow, or even expand. Inside, matching flooring flows throughout the main areas, complemented by cozy carpet in the bedrooms and ceiling fans for year-round comfort. A covered carport offers convenient parking, while a dedicated laundry room adds everyday practicality. Being sold AS IS, this home is ready for its next chapter. Ideally located near I-35, with quick access to Temple and Waco, and an easy drive to Fort Hood, Austin, and Dallas—this is a rare opportunity you won’t want to miss. Schedule your tour today!

25. 2025-09-08
    listed $165,000 Active
26. 2025-08-11
    listed $165,000 Active 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Perfect for first-time homebuyers or a smart rental investment, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,092 square feet of comfortable living space on just over a quarter acre in Troy. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a peaceful creek, the property provides plenty of room to relax, grow, or even expand. Inside, matching flooring flows throughout the main areas, complemented by cozy carpet in the bedrooms and ceiling fans for year-round comfort. A covered carport offers convenient parking, while a dedicated laundry room adds everyday practicality. Being sold AS IS, this home is ready for its next chapter. Ideally located near I-35, with quick access to Temple and Waco, and an easy drive to Fort Hood, Austin, and Dallas—this is a rare opportunity you won’t want to miss. Schedule your tour today!

27. 1979-04-23
    soldstatus
28. 1979-04-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,814 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$473/yr (+$39/mo · 26.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,814
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$378
• After-tax cash flow: $3,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843260
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,586
• Composite: 38.83/100
• National rank: #4110
• State rank: #257 of 826 in TX

Livability — Troy

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #6921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Troy, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 5,448
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,448
• Household income: $85,480
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 210.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.05%
• Current HPI: 183.9791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $144,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-11-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $144,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $144,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $165,000 CTXMLS
• 1979-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1979-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,814 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.