626 NE 816th Ave · Bell, FL 32680

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1993 Fair condition 4.96 ac lot Est $108k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Looking to move to the country? Have farm animals? This gorgeous 4.96 acres may be the answer. Mostly open, grassed pasture with 3/2 manufactured home at the back of property and located just two miles from public boat ramp, family park, swimming hole at Goronto Springs on the Suwannee River. Home features open/split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, plenty of room for vacation home or forever home. Exterior offers front deck overlooking the pasture, covered back porch, pole barn with slab/workshop, extra storage & a detached metal one car carport. Easy commute into Bell, Branford, Cross City or Old Town. View this one today!

Key facts

• Front deck
• Swimming hole
• Grassed pasture

Tags

• 4.96 ACRES
• GRASSED PASTURE
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• SWIMMING HOLE
• FRONT DECK
• COVERED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($869/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.6% in Bell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#767 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,108
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
966 NE 818th St	0.62mi	3/1.0	976 (+6%)	6mo	$114,000	$117	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $80,903
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $234,818
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32680

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $121	+0% $72	+5% $24	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-44	-5% $14	+0% $72	+5% $131	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $108	base $72	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$2,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$324
• After-tax cash flow: $1,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home on 4.96 acres offers a good opportunity for renovation. The home requires updates to the interior and exterior, as well as maintenance to the HVAC system. Improvements in these areas can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Older cabinets may need updating or refinishing.
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — Older fixtures may need replacement or cleaning.
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered siding may need repainting or replacement.
• Major Paint on interior walls — Peeling paint indicates a need for a fresh coat of paint.
• Major Landscaping — Sparse landscaping can be improved with new plants and shrubs.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating interior walls — Fresh paint and updated decor can significantly improve the home's appearance and appeal.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both HVAC maintenance and potential replacement — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve the home's value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Older cabinets may need updating or refinishing.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Older fixtures may need replacement or cleaning.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior siding · Weathered siding may need repainting or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint on interior walls · Peeling paint indicates a need for a fresh coat of paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Sparse landscaping can be improved with new plants and shrubs.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$36,500–133,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating interior walls — Fresh paint and updated decor can significantly improve the home's appearance and appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance and potential replacement — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve the home's value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dixie
• NCES district ID: 1200450
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,799
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3290
• State rank: #36 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bell

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #767
• US rank: #17229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,227
• Population (ZIP): 10,445

Population outlook (Dixie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,122 people
• By 2030: 14,521 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 13,503 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 12,671 · -16.2%
• By 2075: 10,857 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 8,344 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dixie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -45.0pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+66.0 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+45.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.22%
• Current HPI: 424.0037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $139,900 DGLMLS