3502 NW 45th Pl · Cape Coral, FL 33993

$439,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,471 sqft · SingleFamily · 550 Days on market

Built 2024 Est $418k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Neptune Floorplan - 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, 2,471 Sq FtSpacious Two-Story Living with Flexible Spaces by Holiday Builders Step into the Neptune floorplan, a thoughtfully designed two-story home offering 2,471 square feet, 4 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms. This versatile plan is part of our Cornerstone Collection, created for homeowners who want style, flexibility, and room to grow. Enter under a welcoming covered entry into the inviting foyer. From here, you can head into the formal dining room, which can easily be transformed into a den or private office with the addition of a door. To the left, you'll find convenient access to the laundry room, a powder room, and a two-car garage. Con

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024
• Listed 550 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $439,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (spec build, Neptune plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2471; Built as part of 2024–present inventory
• Exterior features: Located at 3502 NW 45th Pl, Cape Coral, FL 33993; Northwest street prefix (NW)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Neptune plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Elementary School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 1,231 students, 38% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 57% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 2671 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,770/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 286% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 550 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 550 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.09%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,599
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3527 NW 42nd Ln	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,444 (-1%)	1mo	$382,000	$156	72
4150 NW 40th Ave	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,338 (-5%)	2mo	$395,000	$169	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-65,735
• Equity at exit: $65,591

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-85,190
• Equity at exit: $38,035

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33993

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 2671
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,598/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,002
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,388

Max offer price $439,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $453	+0% $301	+5% $149	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $113	+0% $301	+5% $490	+10% $678
Rate	-1.0pp $523	-0.5pp $413	base $301	+0.5pp $187	+1.0pp $71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3617 NW 38th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1903	$2,200	$1.16	25d	1	1.09mi
1010 Islamorada Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,700	$2.95	25d	1	1.20mi
3812 NW 38th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$2,600	$1.35	25d	1	1.25mi
2091 King Tarpon Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$5,200	$3.17	25d	1	1.43mi
3001 King Tarpon Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$5,500	$3.17	25d	1	1.44mi
3250 Southshore Dr Unit 54B Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	2069	$5,750	$2.78	25d	1	1.47mi
3471 Sunset Key Cir #102 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1991	$5,750	$2.89	25d	1	1.49mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$6,598
• − Insurance: −$7,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,579
• − Management: −$4,579
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable loss: −$3,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$787
• After-tax cash flow: $4,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,580
• Household income: $90,577
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 286.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 17% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.34%
• Current HPI: 337.0575
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B