407 Ottawa St · Earlville, IL 60518

$195,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Fair condition 8,712 sqft lot $64/sqft · 22% below area Est $249k · 22% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!LARGE VICTORIAN 3 levels 4 Bedrooms 2.5 baths, Beautiful woodwork & Hardwood floors Master in walkup attic-20x26 w/ bath & Closet sub floor in needs carpet or hardwood, 2nd floor kitchen-could be 1st floor kitchen NEW Front Porch & new rear steps, Built-ins, Front & Back Stairs enclosed back Entry 2 car garage MANY MANY Possibilities fireplaces havent been used in many years

Key facts

• Large victorian
• New front porch
• Beautiful woodwork

Tags

• LARGE VICTORIAN
• BEAUTIFUL WOODWORK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MASTER IN WALKUP ATTIC
• NEW FRONT PORCH
• NEW REAR STEPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#749 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Earlville CUSD 9 (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #406 of 919 in IL (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Earlville Elem School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #940 of 2,056 statewide, top 49%, 242 students, 0% FRL); Earlville Jr/Sr High School (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #379 of 693 statewide, top 57%, 97 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 35% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Earlville CUSD 9 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in LaSalle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• LaSalle County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $155,611 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,580
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -21.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 Tally St	0.31mi	4/4.0	2,728 (-11%)	20mo	$305,000	$112	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-39,108
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-43,659
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60518

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $177,886

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-51	+0% $-118	+5% $-186	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-180	+0% $-118	+5% $-57	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-69	base $-118	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    price $195,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 52 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 51 DOM
20. 2026-04-24
    price $205,000 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!LARGE VICTORIAN 3 levels 4 Bedrooms 2.5 baths, Beautiful woodwork & Hardwood floors Master in walkup attic-20x26 w/ bath & Closet sub floor in needs carpet or hardwood, 2nd floor kitchen-could be 1st floor kitchen NEW Front Porch & new rear steps, Built-ins, Front & Back Stairs enclosed back Entry 2 car garage MANY MANY Possibilities fireplaces havent been used in many years

21. 2026-04-09
    listed $212,500 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!LARGE VICTORIAN 3 levels 4 Bedrooms 2.5 baths, Beautiful woodwork & Hardwood floors Master in walkup attic-20x26 w/ bath & Closet sub floor in needs carpet or hardwood, 2nd floor kitchen-could be 1st floor kitchen NEW Front Porch & new rear steps, Built-ins, Front & Back Stairs enclosed back Entry 2 car garage MANY MANY Possibilities fireplaces havent been used in many years

22. 2026-03-31
    historical
23. 2026-03-03
    price
24. 2026-01-14
    status Active
25. 2025-12-26
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
26. 2025-10-31
    price
27. 2025-10-20
    status Active
28. 2025-10-18
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
29. 2025-09-24
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,154
• After-tax cash flow: $-265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This Victorian home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, and flooring. Fresh paint and new carpet will enhance the home's curb appeal and comfort.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen subfloor — Exposed subfloor
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Worn and outdated
• Major Kitchen flooring — Exposed subfloor

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance
• Resale Update kitchen flooring — New flooring improves functionality and appearance
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — New fixtures improve functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen subfloor · Exposed subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen flooring · Exposed subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Resale Update kitchen flooring — New flooring improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — New fixtures improve functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Earlville CUSD 9
• NCES district ID: 1712930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $49,735
• Composite: 32.94/100
• National rank: #10692
• State rank: #406 of 919 in IL

Livability — Earlville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #749
• US rank: #15219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Earlville, IL
• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (LaSalle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,080 people
• By 2030: 104,196 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 97,413 · -9.0%
• By 2050: 90,294 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 76,252 · -28.8%
• By 2100: 61,339 · -42.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · LaSalle

• 2024 margin: R (+18.5) · D 40.1% · R 58.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.6pp toward R · 2008: 11.1pp · 2024: -18.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.5 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+14.4 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+11.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.43%
• Current HPI: 190.6594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $205,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $212,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-18 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid