538 Fairway Oaks Dr · Hernando, MS 38632

$349,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1996 6,534 sqft lot $196/sqft · 39% above area Est $331k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained home with great curb appeal, featuring a brick exterior, landscaped front yard, and a spacious driveway leading to a two car garage. The backyard offers a peaceful setting with no rear neighbors, backing up to a tree lined golf course view that provides both privacy and a scenic backdrop. Enjoy the open green space right behind the home, perfect for relaxing evenings or morning coffee. Located in a well kept neighborhood with easy access to nearby amenities, this property offers a comfortable layout, a great outdoor setting, and a location that is hard to beat.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Centrally located
• Built in shelves

Tags

• HERNANDO HILL GOLF COURSE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• OPEN FLOOR
• BUILT IN SHELVES
• GAS RANGE
• SCREENED IN PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Golf community; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Two stories; Entry level: Primary on main level
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built in public-records year
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Screened porch; Private yard; Rain gutters; Backyard fencing; On golf course; Front yard; City lot; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Self-cleaning oven; Stainless steel appliances
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Carpet; Combination of flooring types; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Bookcases; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Granite countertops; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bedroom on main level; Soaking tub; Walk-in closets; Deadbolt locks; Window screens; Fireplace in great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elem (779 students, 100% FRL); Hernando Middle School (math 75% / reading 57%, grade A-, #2 of 179 statewide, top 1%, 1,150 students, 100% FRL); Hernando High School (math 69% / reading 62%, grade B, #2 of 197 statewide, top 1%, 1,419 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Desoto County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,223 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,355
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: 5.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
782 Fairway Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+1%)	5mo	$319,900	$178	79
462 Fairway Oaks Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-3%)	13mo	$312,000	$181	76
423 Fairway Oaks	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-2%)	16mo	$275,000	$157	74
549 N Classic Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,860 (+4%)	11mo	$315,000	$169	71
905 Fairway Pointe Cv	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (+2%)	3mo	$294,900	$162	63
459 N Classic Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+12%)	4mo	$325,900	$163	60
523 Fairway Oaks Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,962 (+10%)	23mo	$309,900	$158	59
163 Fairway Trace Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+8%)	7mo	$312,900	$163	56
214 Fairway Trace Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,975 (+11%)	21mo	$318,000	$161	40
925 Cardinal Ln	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,585 (-11%)	23mo	$265,000	$167	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-56,783
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-71,046
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,618

Max offer price $349,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $228	+0% $129	+5% $30	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $20	+0% $129	+5% $239	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $218	base $129	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
947 Clubhouse Dr Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,495	$1.46	45d	1	0.18mi
272 Fairway Trace Dr Lot $3800 Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,800	$1.90	45d	1	0.28mi
814 Byhalia Rd Hernando, MS	4.0	3.0	2531	$2,400	$0.95	3d	1	0.50mi
52 Forked Creek Pkwy Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2300	$2,340	$1.02	45d	1	0.82mi
89 Shady Lane Cv E Hernando, MS	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,650	$1.06	13d	1	0.96mi
1324 Biloxi St Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,950	$1.22	25d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $349,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $354,900 Active Under Contract 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,900 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,900 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,900 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    historical Active Under Contract 590-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    price $354,900 590-char remark
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $359,900 Active 590-char remark
18. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus
19. 2022-05-02
    historical
20. 2022-04-26
    listed $349,900 Active
21. 2012-10-12
    soldstatus
22. 1996-09-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,710/yr (+$143/mo · 162.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,671
• − Management: −$2,671
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$4,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $2,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $349,900 MLSU
• 2026-06-04 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — MLSU
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $354,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-21 Listed $359,900 MLSU
• 2022-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-04-26 Listed $349,900 MLSU
• 2012-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.