411 Eckard Cir · Winchester, VA 22602

$94,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in-ready 2022 ranch-style manufactured home, thoughtfully cared for by its original owner. The open floor plan features a spacious kitchen with abundant countertop space that flows seamlessly into the dining area, great for everyday living and entertaining. Just off the kitchen, the inviting living room creates a comfortable setting to relax and unwind. The home includes three well-sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a private ensuite bathroom featuring a large walk-in shower and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms share a conveniently located hall bath and provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy outdoor living with porch access from both exterior doors, surrounded by flowers, and space for outdoor activities. Conveniently located in a park community with access to the interstate. This is a personal property sale and is subject to park approval. The land is leased, with a current lot rent of $500 per month. Lot rent includes water, sewer, and trash. A private driveway provides ample parking.

Key facts

• Central heat
• Open floor plan
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE MASTER BEDROOM
• CENTRAL HEAT
• WELL MAINTAINED

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $94,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$322,300) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $94k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.1% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: commute F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.73%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Eckard Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	1mo	$78,000	$71	99
200 Dogwood Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+0%)	12mo	$385,000	$349	79
163 Denny Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+5%)	4mo	$315,000	$273	76
114 Pioneers Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (+2%)	1mo	$310,000	$276	73
109 Ash Hollow Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,160 (+6%)	3mo	$259,000	$223	73
107 Cardinal Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+6%)	13mo	$340,000	$293	72
111 Lake Wisdom Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,108 (+1%)	15mo	$369,900	$334	63
108 Fenwick Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+10%)	8mo	$355,900	$295	58
107 Dogwood Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,186 (+8%)	19mo	$380,000	$320	58
568 Greenwood Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,105 (+0%)	12mo	$350,000	$317	54
316 Dogwood Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,212 (+10%)	16mo	$292,000	$241	48
109 Lake Sever Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+12%)	10mo	$296,574	$241	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $28,230
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $67,162
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22602

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1105 Franklin St Unit 1105 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1047	$1,650	$1.58	43d	1	1.21mi
1114 Allen Dr Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	43d	1	1.22mi
1016 Franklin St Unit 3 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,498	$1.31	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-05
   remarks 342-char remark
2. 2026-06-05
   listed $94,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $8,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,961
• After-tax cash flow: $7,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready 2022 home in Winchester is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good foundation, structure, and systems, and is well-maintained. The home has a good exterior and interior, and the kitchen and bathrooms are in good condition. The home has a good roof and siding, and the windows are intact. The home has a good HVAC system and is well-maintained. The home has a good foundation and structure, and the systems are in good condition. The home has a good exterior and interior, and the kitchen and bathrooms are in good condition. The home has a good roof and siding, and the windows are intact. The home has a good HVAC system and is well-maintained. The home has a good foundation and structure, and the systems are in good condition. The home has a good exterior and interior, and the kitchen and bathrooms are in good condition. The home has a good roof and siding, and the windows are intact. The home has a good HVAC system and is well-maintained. The home has a good foundation and structure, and the systems are in good condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — A new unit can improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Replace water heater — A new water heater can improve comfort and reduce maintenance costs
• Both Replace roof — A new roof can extend the life of the home and improve its appearance
• Both Replace siding — Fresh siding can improve curb appeal and property value
• Both Replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce maintenance costs
• Both Replace flooring — Fresh flooring can improve the appearance and comfort of the home
• Both Replace appliances — Fresh appliances can improve the appearance and functionality of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — A new unit can improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Replace water heater — A new water heater can improve comfort and reduce maintenance costs ↑
• Both Replace roof — A new roof can extend the life of the home and improve its appearance ↑
• Both Replace siding — Fresh siding can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce maintenance costs ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Fresh flooring can improve the appearance and comfort of the home ↑
• Both Replace appliances — Fresh appliances can improve the appearance and functionality of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #4429

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living B Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Frederick County · 60,887 people
• City population: 62,070
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 32,840
• Household income: $101,398
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 294.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.39%
• Current HPI: 209.8801
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.55%
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $94,500 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-05-18 Sold (MLS) $78,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $89,000 BRIGHT MLS