1441 Brandy Shoals Dr · Conyers, GA 30013

$395,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,902 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1989 1.10 ac lot $101/sqft · 37% below area Est $625k · 37% under $10/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $125 (fee includes: none listed)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with basement and side/rear/kitchen-level entrances
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); Two levels; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 1989; Stucco construction; Composition roof; Finished basement (full)
• Exterior features: Private lot; Street lights in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total — 3 on the main level, 1 on the lower level
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom; 2 bathrooms on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the lower level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Has fireplace (1)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Separate shower; Soaking tub; Tile baths; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Finished basement with interior entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $351k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $351k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.4% in Conyers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#167 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, commute F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oak Hill Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 648 students, 85% FRL); Veterans Memorial Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #356 of 470 statewide, top 78%, 637 students, 85% FRL); Alcovy High School (math 3% / reading 12%, grade F, #378 of 424 statewide, top 91%, 1,991 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 367 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,508/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1197% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $350,841 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.84%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $624,721
• List price: $395,000
• Delta: -36.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1441 Brandy Shoals Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5	3,903 (0%)	0mo	$395,000	$101	100
1540 Christian Cir SE	0.26mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,800 (-3%)	4mo	$635,000	$167	73
1580 Christian Cir SE	0.30mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,800 (-3%)	3mo	$695,000	$183	73
247 Lotus Ln #23	0.38mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,801 (-3%)	0mo	$682,990	$180	71
188 Lotus Ln #83	0.36mi	5/4.0 (+1)	4,240 (+9%)	2mo	$652,900	$154	60
171 Lotus Ln	0.36mi	5/4.0 (+1)	4,240 (+9%)	3mo	$856,880	$202	59
198 Lotus Ln #82	0.36mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,250 (+9%)	0mo	$625,990	$147	59
80 Rosemont Pkwy	0.35mi	5/3.5 (+1)	4,203 (+8%)	9mo	$771,000	$183	58
193 Lotus Ln #28	0.38mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,250 (+9%)	2mo	$693,800	$163	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-57,728
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-68,906
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30013

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 367
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,508 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,172/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$737
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,178

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $373	+0% $261	+5% $150	+10% $38
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $123	+0% $261	+5% $400	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $362	base $261	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
85 Allspice Dr Covington, GA	5.0	4.0	3461	$4,500	$1.30	44d	1	0.40mi
85 Lotus Ln Covington, GA	5.0	4.5	5032	$5,000	$0.99	1d	1	0.52mi
45 Franklin Way Covington, GA	4.0	3.0	2626	$2,650	$1.01	19d	1	0.96mi
3203 Beuhlah Way SE Conyers, GA	4.0	3.5	2894	$2,700	$0.93	15d	1	1.24mi
3203 Beuhlah Way SE Conyers, GA	4.0	3.5	2894	$2,700	$0.93	17d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $395,000 New 1290-char remark
2. 2021-01-07
   soldstatus $260,000
3. 2020-12-18
   soldstatus $260,000 Closed 556-char remark

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

4. 2020-12-18
   soldstatus $260,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

5. 2020-12-11
   status Pending Offer Approval

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

6. 2020-12-10
   historical

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

7. 2020-11-23
   status Pending 556-char remark

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

8. 2020-11-19
   status Active Under Contract 556-char remark

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

9. 2020-11-19
   status Pending Offer Approval

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

10. 2020-11-15
    listed $245,000 New

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

11. 2020-11-13
    listed $245,000 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Gorgeous Ranch with basement on a spacious 1.1 acreage of land overlooking a beautiful and serene creek, Located in the sort after Brandy Shoals Community. Comes with a large Back Porch with an outdoor Jacuzzi . Two Master bedrooms-one on the MAIN level and another in basement. Three additional bedrooms on upper level. 2 Additional drive in garage in basement. Basement has a lot of space to also be designed to your liking, workshop located in basement garage. Original Hardwood Floors. Formal Dining and Living Room. A Bonus Room in basement for a gym.

12. 2013-08-08
    soldstatus $213,500
13. 2013-08-01
    price $213,500
14. 2013-08-01
    historical
15. 2013-07-30
    soldstatus $213,500 Sold
16. 2013-07-30
    price $219,900
17. 2013-06-18
    status Pending
18. 2013-06-04
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence
19. 2013-04-10
    listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,172 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,634 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$462/yr (+$39/mo · 14.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$3,172
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,368
• − Management: −$3,368
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$3,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$845
• After-tax cash flow: $3,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Conyers

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #10533

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockdale County · 96,534 people
• City population: 96,534
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 28,297
• Household income: $74,691
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1197.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 70% White 17% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.27%
• Current HPI: 192.1705
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.33%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+79.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $395,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $395,000 GAMLS
• 2021-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-18 Sold (MLS) $260,000 GAMLS
• 2020-12-18 Sold (MLS) $260,000 FMLS
• 2020-12-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-12-10 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2020-11-23 Pending — FMLS
• 2020-11-19 Relisted — FMLS
• 2020-11-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-11-15 Listed $245,000 GAMLS
• 2020-11-13 Listed $245,000 FMLS
• 2013-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $213,500 Public Records
• 2013-08-01 Price Changed $213,500 FMLS
• 2013-08-01 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2013-07-30 Price Changed $219,900 FMLS
• 2013-07-30 Sold (MLS) $213,500 FMLS
• 2013-06-18 Pending — FMLS
• 2013-06-04 Contingent — FMLS
• 2013-04-10 Listed $219,900 FMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,172 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.