153 Lillian Drive Dr · Dalton, GA 30121

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2020 7,841 sqft lot Est $221k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2020 3 bed/2 bath ranch house in an excellent location in Dalton GA. This charming one-level home features a striking mix of brick and board-and-batten exterior, complemented by a welcoming covered porch. Inside, enjoy a bright, open layout filled with good natural lighting and modern finishes. The lovely living areas flow seamlessly, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a low maintenance yard, pool, and large storage. Located in a quiet setting near local amenities. Don't miss this opportunity-schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Low maintenance yard
• Quiet setting

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• POOL
• LARGE STORAGE
• QUIET SETTING
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (site built); One level / 1 story; Subdivision: New Smith
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Above-ground private pool; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric oven; Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-237/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Dalton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#172 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Whitfield County (rural): math 37% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #62 of 174 in GA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Antioch Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #485 of 1,228 statewide, top 41%, 464 students, 90% FRL); Eastbrook Middle School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 680 students, 87% FRL); Southeast Whitfield County High School (math 30% / reading 19%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,492 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 61% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 374 units permitted in Whitfield County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whitfield County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,850 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,542
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Lillian Drive Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,246 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$181	99
1109 Smith Springs Drive Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,386 (+11%)	22mo	$140,000	$101	47
2834 Suncrest Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,215 (-2%)	23mo	$215,000	$177	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-42,411
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-53,833
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30121

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,042/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,863

Max offer price $226,515

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $45	+0% $-20	+5% $-85	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-92	+0% $-20	+5% $53	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $39	base $-20	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   price $230,000
3. 2026-02-05
   listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$74/yr (+$6/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,042
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,016
• After-tax cash flow: $780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitfield County
• NCES district ID: 1305700
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,296
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #6290
• State rank: #62 of 174 in GA

Livability — Dalton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #10778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bartow County · 85,497 people
• City population: 80,309
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,989
• Household income: $78,366
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 731.0

Population outlook (Whitfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,770 people
• By 2030: 108,737 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 110,260 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 111,205 · +3.2%
• By 2075: 113,014 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 112,775 · +4.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitfield

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.5) · D 27.5% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.5 2020: R+40.7 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+45.1 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.71%
• Current HPI: 314.4117
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CCARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $230,000 CCARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $235,000 CCARMLS

Property tax history

+76.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,042 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.