69 York St · Lyndon, VT 05851

$269,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,177 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 232 Days on market

Built 1880 11 ac lot $124/sqft · at area comps Est $258k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cherished by the same family for more than 70 years, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is filled with warmth, memories, and the promise of new beginnings. Set on over 10 acres within walking distance to town, the property offers open space for gardens, gatherings, and simple country living. Mature perennials, apple trees, and blueberry bushes surround the home, while a small brook winds gently through the land, adding to the sense of tranquility. A screened-in porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy morning coffee or quiet evenings listening to nature. Inside, generous living areas offer plenty of potential to refresh and make your own, with room to grow and create lasting memories. A 2-car attached garage adds practicality to the property’s charm. Conveniently located near I-91, local schools, and amenities, this special home is ready to welcome its next owners to continue its story. Come take a look!

Key facts

• Blueberry bushes
• Mature perennials
• Screened-in porch

Tags

• OVER 10 ACRES
• MATURE PERENNIALS
• APPLE TREES
• BLUEBERRY BUSHES
• SMALL BROOK
• SCREENED-IN PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $194k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,319 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,000
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: 4.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $134,403
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $405,706
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05851

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,837/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,303

Max offer price $234,968

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-121	+0% $-198	+5% $-274	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-279	+0% $-198	+5% $-117	+10% $-36
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-129	base $-198	+0.5pp $-268	+1.0pp $-339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 232 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $269,900 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $289,900 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,900 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 212 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $289,900 925-char remark

    Show marketing remark (925 chars)

    Cherished by the same family for more than 70 years, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is filled with warmth, memories, and the promise of new beginnings. Set on over 10 acres within walking distance to town, the property offers open space for gardens, gatherings, and simple country living. Mature perennials, apple trees, and blueberry bushes surround the home, while a small brook winds gently through the land, adding to the sense of tranquility. A screened-in porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy morning coffee or quiet evenings listening to nature. Inside, generous living areas offer plenty of potential to refresh and make your own, with room to grow and create lasting memories. A 2-car attached garage adds practicality to the property’s charm. Conveniently located near I-91, local schools, and amenities, this special home is ready to welcome its next owners to continue its story. Come take a look!

19. 2026-03-04
    price $299,900 925-char remark

    Show marketing remark (925 chars)

    Cherished by the same family for more than 70 years, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is filled with warmth, memories, and the promise of new beginnings. Set on over 10 acres within walking distance to town, the property offers open space for gardens, gatherings, and simple country living. Mature perennials, apple trees, and blueberry bushes surround the home, while a small brook winds gently through the land, adding to the sense of tranquility. A screened-in porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy morning coffee or quiet evenings listening to nature. Inside, generous living areas offer plenty of potential to refresh and make your own, with room to grow and create lasting memories. A 2-car attached garage adds practicality to the property’s charm. Conveniently located near I-91, local schools, and amenities, this special home is ready to welcome its next owners to continue its story. Come take a look!

20. 2026-01-21
    price $329,900 925-char remark

    Show marketing remark (925 chars)

    Cherished by the same family for more than 70 years, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is filled with warmth, memories, and the promise of new beginnings. Set on over 10 acres within walking distance to town, the property offers open space for gardens, gatherings, and simple country living. Mature perennials, apple trees, and blueberry bushes surround the home, while a small brook winds gently through the land, adding to the sense of tranquility. A screened-in porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy morning coffee or quiet evenings listening to nature. Inside, generous living areas offer plenty of potential to refresh and make your own, with room to grow and create lasting memories. A 2-car attached garage adds practicality to the property’s charm. Conveniently located near I-91, local schools, and amenities, this special home is ready to welcome its next owners to continue its story. Come take a look!

21. 2025-10-31
    listed $349,000 Active 925-char remark

    Show marketing remark (925 chars)

    Cherished by the same family for more than 70 years, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is filled with warmth, memories, and the promise of new beginnings. Set on over 10 acres within walking distance to town, the property offers open space for gardens, gatherings, and simple country living. Mature perennials, apple trees, and blueberry bushes surround the home, while a small brook winds gently through the land, adding to the sense of tranquility. A screened-in porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy morning coffee or quiet evenings listening to nature. Inside, generous living areas offer plenty of potential to refresh and make your own, with room to grow and create lasting memories. A 2-car attached garage adds practicality to the property’s charm. Conveniently located near I-91, local schools, and amenities, this special home is ready to welcome its next owners to continue its story. Come take a look!

22. 2023-09-19
    soldstatus $193,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,837 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,982 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,146/yr (+$95/mo · 40.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,837
• − Insurance: −$2,016
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$7,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $-663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lyndon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyndon, VT
• Population (ZIP): 5,972

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.00%
• Current HPI: 319.1832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+49.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $289,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $299,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $329,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $349,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $193,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,837 · -22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.