12605 E Gibson Rd #65 · Lake Stickney, WA 98204

$149,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 956 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $149k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy affordable living in this well-positioned manufactured home located in a desirable gated, all-ages community. Situated on a corner lot, this home offers added privacy and a standout location. At the edge of the property is entry to a private grass field large enough for group gatherings. A great place to let your dog play or host events without the fear of car noise or traffic. Monthly Park rent is below $850 and includes access to the community clubhouse. The property also features 2 designated street parking spaces, a spacious carport, and a storage shed for added convenience and storage. Conveniently located near local Everett transportation options and Paine Field, this home offer

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community clubhouse
• Private grass field

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE GRASS FIELD
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• DESIGNATED STREET PARKING
• SPACIOUS CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.4% in Lake Stickney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#192 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Mukilteo School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #111 of 291 in WA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $150k implies a 236% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $149,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.01%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,136
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12605 E Gibson Rd #65	0.00mi	2/1.0	956 (0%)	0mo	$149,500	$156	96
13119 17th Ave W #1	0.52mi	2/1.0	896 (-6%)	10mo	$38,600	$43	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,951
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $33,850
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98204

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $768/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $678	-5% $636	+0% $594	+5% $551	+10% $509
Rent	-10% $443	-5% $518	+0% $594	+5% $669	+10% $744
Rate	-1.0pp $669	-0.5pp $632	base $594	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12522 8th Ave W Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$2,146	$2.13	5d	8	0.09mi
921 130th St SW Unit A101 Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	844	$1,700	$2.01	5d	1	0.15mi
1007 130th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	796	$1,800	$2.26	2d	9	0.15mi
820 124th St SW Apt D Everett, WA	2.0	1.5	960	$1,595	$1.66	5d	1	0.16mi
12906 8th Ave W Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	841	$1,675	$1.99	5d	1	0.18mi
12601 8th Ave W Everett, WA	2.0	1.0	637	$1,839	$2.88	5d	15	0.21mi
12907 E Gibson Rd Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$2,085	$2.43	5d	4	0.21mi
12907 E Gibson Rd Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,081	$2.69	2d	5	0.21mi
12433 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$2,274	$2.12	3d	32	0.25mi
909 132nd St SW Everett, WA	1.0	1.0	520	$1,495	$2.88	2d	2	0.30mi
12402 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,922	$2.28	2d	16	0.39mi
12121 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,245	$2.01	3d	18	0.43mi
12530 Admiralty Way Unit D304 Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	5d	1	0.47mi
11812 E Gibson Rd Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	956	$1,810	$1.89	3d	7	0.54mi
13000 Admiralty Way Unit K103 Everett, WA	1.0	1.0	609	$1,700	$2.79	44d	1	0.60mi
13004 Meridian Ave S Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,961	$1.91	2d	1	0.60mi
12121 Highway 99 Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	638	$1,637	$2.56	5d	14	0.63mi
11527 Highway 99 Unit E302 Everett, WA	1.0	1.0	667	$1,700	$2.55	5d	1	0.76mi
128 127th St SE Everett, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	884	$2,747	$3.11	2d	10	0.78mi
12118 Highway 99 Everett, WA	1.0–5.0	1.0–3.0	1117	$1,941	$1.74	2d	5	0.82mi
133 124th St SE Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,055	$2.50	2d	9	0.83mi
1020 112th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,752	$2.05	2d	7	0.84mi
11207 9th Pl W Everett, WA	2.0	1.0	995	$1,899	$1.91	20d	7	0.91mi
923 112th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	858	$1,950	$2.27	2d	24	0.96mi
11715 Center Rd Unit A Everett, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	44d	1	0.96mi
1730 112th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$2,100	$2.61	2d	6	0.98mi
14402 Madison Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$2,500	$3.12	44d	1	1.09mi
11401 3rd Ave SE Everett, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,962	$2.28	2d	13	1.23mi
10720 Washington Way Everett, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,200	$3.14	2d	1	1.23mi
2709 Lincoln Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1120	$2,256	$2.01	2d	4	1.28mi
13510 N Creek Dr Mill Creek, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,642	$1.61	4d	1	1.34mi
12909 Mukilteo Speedway Lynnwood, WA	3.0–4.0	2.0	1199	$1,993	$1.66	5d	8	1.40mi
515 112th St SE Everett, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1050	$1,726	$1.64	3d	3	1.40mi
13401 Dumas Rd Mill Creek, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$2,237	$2.56	2d	5	1.41mi
525 112th St SE Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1019	$2,416	$2.37	2d	6	1.42mi
14131 Admiralty Way Unit B Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,245	$2.25	24d	1	1.44mi
14014 Admiralty Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,975	$2.57	5d	6	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $149,500 Active
3. 2018-07-06
   soldstatus $44,500 Sold
4. 2018-06-15
   status Pending Inspection
5. 2018-06-04
   status Active
6. 2018-05-25
   status Pending
7. 2018-04-26
   status Active
8. 2018-04-20
   status Pending Inspection
9. 2018-04-16
   status Active
10. 2018-04-03
    status Pending Inspection
11. 2018-03-22
    listed $47,500 Active
12. 2004-10-27
    soldstatus $16,000
13. 2004-09-08
    listed $16,919

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $768 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,465 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 90.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$768
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $4,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,188
• After-tax cash flow: $5,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mukilteo School District
• NCES district ID: 5305430
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $60,807
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #4733
• State rank: #111 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Stickney

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #5224

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 45,130
• Household income: $68,513
• Rent vs Own: 66.4% rent · 33.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2874.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 14% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 4% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 18% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Vietnamese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -540.03%
• Current HPI: 321.7923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.70%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+783.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $149,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-06 Sold (MLS) $44,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-04 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-25 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-26 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-16 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-22 Listed $47,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-27 Sold (MLS) $16,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-08 Listed $16,919 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $768 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.