Alexander Plan · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$319,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,552 sqft · SingleFamily · 165 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Key facts

• Covered entryway
• Three-car garage
• Owners' suite

Tags

• COVERED ENTRYWAY
• SPACIOUS FOYER
• OWNERS' SUITE
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• THREE-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $319,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Alexander); Status: Active
• Exterior features: Address: 3621 Jupiter Blvd SE, Palm Bay, FL 32909

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 1552; Plan: Alexander (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-492 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,644 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $144,450
• Equity at exit: $288,272

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $453,169
• Equity at exit: $621,670

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $248,799

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 Algardi St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,330	$1.20	23d	1	0.08mi
743 Andrew St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,895	$1.51	23d	1	0.47mi
741 Frisco St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,950	$1.69	23d	1	0.56mi
84 San Filippo Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,044	$1.94	14d	30	0.58mi
205 Valor Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$1,937	$2.15	14d	17	0.64mi
1205 Jaslo St SE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,245	$2.26	14d	8	0.66mi
721 Taluga Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,800	$1.16	23d	1	0.78mi
896 Talmadge Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,900	$1.50	14d	1	0.86mi
885 Talmadge Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	21d	1	0.87mi
490 Hatcher St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	21d	1	0.90mi
741 Fairhaven St NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$1,900	$1.42	23d	1	0.95mi
829 Tampa Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,740	$1.34	23d	1	0.96mi
710 Avalon St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,995	$1.45	23d	1	1.00mi
272 Aquarius Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	23d	1	1.06mi
1130 Grapefruit Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,900	$1.66	14d	1	1.07mi
431 Brantley St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,050	$1.55	19d	1	1.13mi
320 Algiers Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,825	$1.40	23d	1	1.14mi
309 Cactus St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,195	$1.19	14d	1	1.16mi
1129 Colonial Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2008	$2,500	$1.25	19d	1	1.23mi
1255 Wadsworth St SE Unit 1255 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	3.0	1747	$2,350	$1.35	19d	1	1.24mi
334 Bordeaux Ave NE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,250	$1.08	14d	1	1.27mi
857 Buchanan Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,950	$1.55	23d	1	1.31mi
931 Commerce Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,300	$2.15	23d	1	1.31mi
194 Holiday Park Blvd NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,695	$1.21	23d	1	1.36mi
1391 Nolan St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,830	$1.56	19d	1	1.37mi
171 Okeefe St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,855	$1.44	14d	1	1.39mi
1210 Vandalia Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,050	$1.12	14d	1	1.47mi
214 Eldron Blvd NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,075	$1.26	23d	1	1.47mi
914 Caligula Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,841	$1.34	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $319,990 Active 161 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$11,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,807
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B