16846 Santa Rosa Dr · Detroit, MI 48221

$115,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,722 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1927 3,485 sqft lot $67/sqft · 20% below area Est $143k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Upper unit
• Lower unit

Tags

• UPPER UNIT
• LOWER UNIT
• WOOD FLOORS
• NEAR UNIVERSITY OF DETROIT
• NEAR AVENUE OF FASHION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 24 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.58%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,483
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -19.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16864 Santa Rosa Dr	0.02mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,764 (+2%)	1mo	$170,000	$96	90
16796 Turner St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-1%)	3mo	$159,000	$93	74
15861 Tuller St	0.55mi	5/1.5	1,768 (+3%)	2mo	$28,000	$16	68
17136 Fairfield St	0.43mi	5/1.5	1,870 (+9%)	6mo	$290,000	$155	60
16568 Monica St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-13%)	10mo	$170,000	$113	56
16651 Lawton St	0.62mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,656 (-4%)	5mo	$90,000	$54	55
17565 Pennington Dr	0.52mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,661 (-4%)	12mo	$268,000	$161	55
16784 Tuller St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,545 (-10%)	10mo	$184,000	$119	55
16143 Monica St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-13%)	2mo	$175,000	$117	54
15828 Santa Rosa Dr	0.51mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,600 (-7%)	8mo	$125,000	$78	52
16570 Princeton St	0.72mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,839 (+7%)	9mo	$135,000	$73	43
17152 Roselawn St	0.51mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (-14%)	9mo	$90,000	$61	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $13,993
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $56,683
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,932/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $531	+0% $499	+5% $466	+10% $433
Rent	-10% $359	-5% $429	+0% $499	+5% $568	+10% $638
Rate	-1.0pp $557	-0.5pp $528	base $499	+0.5pp $469	+1.0pp $438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15756 Ohio St Detroit, MI	5.0	2.0	1934	$1,700	$0.88	25d	1	0.83mi
16211 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	2168	$1,995	$0.92	18d	1	0.87mi
3040 Kendall St Detroit, MI	5.0	1.0	1188	$1,386	$1.17	13d	1	1.45mi
Ohio St Unit 4 Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1400	$750	$0.54	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    status Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

15. 2026-04-07
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

16. 2026-04-02
    status Pending 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

17. 2026-04-02
    status Pending 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

18. 2026-03-27
    price $115,000 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

19. 2026-03-27
    price $115,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

20. 2026-03-05
    price $125,000 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

21. 2026-03-04
    price $125,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

22. 2026-02-10
    listed $135,000 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

23. 2026-02-10
    listed $135,000 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Very stable neighborhood. Tenants already in place! 2 bedrooms in upper unit and 3 bedrooms in the lower unit. Wood floors. Near University of Detroit to the South and the Avenue of Fashion to the North. Property being sold "AS IS. "

24. 2025-01-07
    historical
25. 2024-12-17
    status Pending
26. 2024-11-11
    status Pending
27. 2024-11-11
    status Pending
28. 2024-11-11
    historical
29. 2024-11-08
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
30. 2024-11-08
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
31. 2024-10-16
    status Active
32. 2024-10-16
    status Active
33. 2024-09-30
    historical
34. 2024-09-30
    historical
35. 2024-06-19
    status Active
36. 2024-06-19
    status Active
37. 2024-06-03
    status Pending
38. 2024-06-03
    status Pending
39. 2024-05-28
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
40. 2024-05-28
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
41. 2024-04-17
    status Active
42. 2024-04-17
    status Active
43. 2023-12-05
    historical
44. 2023-12-05
    historical
45. 2023-11-30
    price $99,900
46. 2023-11-29
    price $99,900
47. 2023-11-28
    status Active
48. 2023-11-28
    status Active
49. 2023-08-29
    historical
50. 2023-08-29
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,932 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,932 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,932
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $4,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+187.5% since first listed

77 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-10 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-10 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-08 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-08 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-16 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-16 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-19 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-19 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-28 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-28 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-04-17 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-17 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-12-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-12-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-11-28 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-28 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-15 Listed $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-15 Listed $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-03-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-12 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-12 Sold (MLS) $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-12-09 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-12-09 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2022-11-23 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-23 Listed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-06-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-06-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-05 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2021-03-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2020-12-22 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-22 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2020-12-13 Price Changed $71,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-12 Price Changed $71,500 REALCOMP
• 2020-12-12 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-12 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2020-10-15 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-15 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2020-03-20 Listed $69,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-03-20 Listed $69,500 REALCOMP
• 2018-08-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-08-24 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-08-24 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-01-30 Sold (MLS) $7,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-12-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-08-21 Listed $7,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-01-21 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-11-15 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2001-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,923 Public Records
• 1996-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,932 · -40.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.