68 Crush Ct · Swansboro, NC 28584

$199,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · Townhouse public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2000 1,742 sqft lot Est $177k · 13% over $72/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For comps only

Key facts

• $72 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Pirates Cove Townhouses
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($864 / year; approx. $72/month); Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt/paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels / 2 stories; Entry level: 1st floor; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a townhouse
• Exterior features: Patio; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (bedrooms/other rooms included)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in kitchen; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-418/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Swansboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in NC, #3,124 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Queens Creek Elementary (math 46% / reading 59%, grade C-, #349 of 1,410 statewide, top 25%, 751 students, 52% FRL); Swansboro Middle (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C+, #87 of 475 statewide, top 19%, 967 students, 43% FRL); Swansboro High (math 77% / reading 68%, grade B+, #104 of 535 statewide, top 19%, 1,115 students, 38% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $200k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,736 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,120
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Pirates Cove Dr	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,080 (0%)	21mo	$183,000	$169	79
84 Crush Ct	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,240 (+15%)	2mo	$203,000	$164	67
44 Pirates Cove Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,240 (+15%)	6mo	$195,000	$157	61
40 Pirates Cove Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,240 (+15%)	8mo	$195,000	$157	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,646
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,163
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28584

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$72
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $193,740

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $22	+0% $-35	+5% $-91	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-98	+0% $-35	+5% $28	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $16	base $-35	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Pirates Cove Dr Swansboro, NC	3.0	2.5	1240	$1,500	$1.21	22d	1	0.02mi
69 Outrigger Dr Swansboro, NC	2.0	2.5	1120	$1,700	$1.52	22d	1	0.74mi
312 Queens Rd Hubert, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	14d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $72 · $864/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $199,900 Active
18. 2005-08-05
    soldstatus $79,000
19. 2005-08-04
    soldstatus $79,000 14-char remark

    Show marketing remark (14 chars)

    For comps only

20. 2005-07-20
    listed $79,000 14-char remark

    Show marketing remark (14 chars)

    For comps only

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$616/yr (+$51/mo · 60.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − HOA: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$936
• After-tax cash flow: $517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Swansboro

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Swansboro, NC
• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 14,939
• Household income: $87,414
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.35%
• Current HPI: 370.67
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+153.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $199,900 Hive MLS
• 2005-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-04 Sold (MLS) $79,000 Hive MLS
• 2005-07-20 Listed $79,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.