64 Glen Rd · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$799,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,653 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2004 0.26 ac lot $301/sqft · 27% below area Est $719k · 11% over $59/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

What A Beautiful Young 2004 Built Colonial In A Quiet Desirable Community With Private Beach Rights. This Home Offers Lots Of Updates That Includes Oak Flooring Throughout, Granite Kitchen, Wood Burning Fireplace W/Marble, Newly Finished Basement & A Oversized Deck For Your Summer Entertainment. Nothing Better Than Owning A Home That You Can Walk To The Beach Anytime., Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

Key facts

• Charming gazebo
• Two new trex decks
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• PROFESSIONALLY LANDSCAPED YARD
• TWO NEW TREX DECKS
• CHARMING GAZEBO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $710; HOA fee covers snow removal and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Wooded, landscaped backyard
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms (total rooms: 8)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; Ductless cooling; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining; Granite counters; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Smart thermostat; Walk-in closets; Finished full basement; Full attic with scuttle access; Covered porch; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $799k).
• Recommended offer: $775k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($775k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $395k; list at $799k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $775,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $718,855
• List price: $799,000
• Delta: 11.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Fern Rd E	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,348 (-12%)	8mo	$870,000	$371	66
1485 Sound Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,800 (+6%)	11mo	$975,000	$348	58
103 Silver Beech Ln	0.67mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,775 (+5%)	4mo	$1,360,000	$490	49
3 Silver Beech Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,600 (-2%)	19mo	$975,000	$375	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $206,564
• Equity at exit: $371,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $583,212
• Equity at exit: $581,054

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$960 /mo · $11,524/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$59
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,887
• Net cashflow: $1,556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,016

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
52 Summit Dr Calverton, NY	3.0	2.0	2256	$10,000	$4.43	44d	1	0.68mi
1871 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	4.0	2.5	2378	$8,000	$3.36	7d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $59 · $708/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $799,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $799,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $799,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $799,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $799,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $799,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $799,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $799,000 Active 1245-char remark
15. 2026-05-01
    historical
16. 2026-03-28
    price $799,000
17. 2026-02-01
    price $824,999
18. 2025-10-27
    listed $849,999 Active
19. 2018-02-06
    soldstatus $395,000
20. 2018-01-12
    soldstatus $395,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    What A Beautiful Young 2004 Built Colonial In A Quiet Desirable Community With Private Beach Rights. This Home Offers Lots Of Updates That Includes Oak Flooring Throughout, Granite Kitchen, Wood Burning Fireplace W/Marble, Newly Finished Basement & A Oversized Deck For Your Summer Entertainment. Nothing Better Than Owning A Home That You Can Walk To The Beach Anytime., Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

21. 2017-11-14
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    What A Beautiful Young 2004 Built Colonial In A Quiet Desirable Community With Private Beach Rights. This Home Offers Lots Of Updates That Includes Oak Flooring Throughout, Granite Kitchen, Wood Burning Fireplace W/Marble, Newly Finished Basement & A Oversized Deck For Your Summer Entertainment. Nothing Better Than Owning A Home That You Can Walk To The Beach Anytime., Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

22. 2017-10-20
    listed $399,900 New

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    What A Beautiful Young 2004 Built Colonial In A Quiet Desirable Community With Private Beach Rights. This Home Offers Lots Of Updates That Includes Oak Flooring Throughout, Granite Kitchen, Wood Burning Fireplace W/Marble, Newly Finished Basement & A Oversized Deck For Your Summer Entertainment. Nothing Better Than Owning A Home That You Can Walk To The Beach Anytime., Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,524 · $960/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,514 · $1,043/mo
• Expected delta: +$989/yr (+$82/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $107,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$11,524
• − Insurance: −$3,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,626
• − Management: −$8,626
• − HOA: −$708
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable income: $6,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,524
• After-tax cash flow: $17,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $824,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listed $849,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-12 Sold (MLS) $395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-20 Listed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,524 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.