501 Wild Spur Ln · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$304,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $212/sqft · 12% below area Est $345k · 12% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! The private primary suite boasts his-and-hers sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. Gray cabinets with marble-look white quartz countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and multi-tone taupe carpet in our Radiant package. Small-town charm meets big-city amenities in the heart of this Liberty Hill community. Situated just off Hwy 29, the “Americana Collection” at Butler Farms offers functional floorplans with fabulous included features like walk-in showers, covered patios and designer curated interior packages. Find your dream home in this gorgeous community located in the highly-acclaimed Liberty Hill ISD. Each of

Key facts

• Covered patios
• Large walk-in closet
• Walk-in showers

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIOS
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Goodwin & Co) with quarterly fee; Association fee includes common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Covered garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway parking; Garage faces front; Total 4 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Phone service available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; East-facing; Under construction
• Construction: Built by Meritage Homes; Brick and frame construction with HardiPlank siding; Spray foam insulation; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built (builder source)
• Exterior features: Private, landscaped yard; Covered patio; Rain gutters; In-wall pest control system; Fenced pool area; Sprinklers in front, rear and side; Curbs

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Stainless steel appliances; Granite and quartz counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Recessed lighting
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in main-level bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Electric heat; Heat pump; Zoned heating; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fan(s); Smart home features; Smart thermostat; Insulated windows; Pantry; Kitchen island; Main level primary; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.8% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1509 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $218,587 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,894
• List price: $304,990
• Delta: -11.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-67,829
• Equity at exit: $45,475

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-99,513
• Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1509
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,423

Max offer price $271,941

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-101	+0% $-187	+5% $-273	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-273	+0% $-187	+5% $-101	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-110	base $-187	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,248
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Outlaw Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	0d	1	0.12mi
213 Wild Spur Ln Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,850	$1.46	26d	1	0.13mi
201 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,995	$1.38	0d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Active 231-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   historical 231-char remark
3. 2026-04-23
   price $304,990 231-char remark
4. 2026-04-22
   status Active 231-char remark
5. 2026-04-22
   price $327,775 231-char remark
6. 2025-10-30
   historical 231-char remark
7. 2025-10-22
   listed $346,465 Active 231-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,581 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,824/yr (+$319/mo · 217.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$7,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $-398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty Hill, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $304,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,757 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.