309 Louise St · Marlin, TX 76661

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 556 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1950 0.29 ac lot $178/sqft · 152% above area Est $69k · 44% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on market with upgrades at no fault of the property! Now has a mini-split in the living room, railing on rear steps, improved foundation support, improved attic access, and improved crawl space ventilation and skirting material! DOUBLE LOT! Charming and updated, this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Marlin, Texas offers small-town living with extra space to grow. Thoughtfully refreshed, the home features a comfortable layout with a dedicated laundry-utility room for added convenience. A welcoming front porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings. Situated on a double lot, this property offers exceptional flexibility and value. The home and the neighboring lot are being sold together, giving you additional yard space, room for expansion, a future build, workshop, garden, or simply added privacy.

Key facts

• Double lot
• Room for expansion
• Workshop

Tags

• DEDICATED LAUNDRY-UTILITY ROOM
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• DOUBLE LOT
• ADDITIONAL YARD SPACE
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-466/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Marlin Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 201 students, 100% FRL); Marlin High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,612 of 1,632 statewide, top 99%, 243 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 16% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,556 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,628
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 44.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $15,716
• Equity at exit: $51,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $52,068
• Equity at exit: $84,515

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,189/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $92,133

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-11	+0% $-39	+5% $-67	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $-70	+0% $-39	+5% $-8	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-14	base $-39	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   Back on market with upgrades at no fault of the property! Now has a mini-split in the living room, railing on rear steps, improved foundation support, improved attic access, and improved crawl space ventilation and skirting material! DOUBLE LOT! Charming and updated, this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Marlin, Texas offers small-town living with extra space to grow. Thoughtfully refreshed, the home features a comfortable layout with a dedicated laundry-utility room for added convenience. A welcoming front porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings. Situated on a double lot, this property offers exceptional flexibility and value. The home and the neighboring lot are being sold together, giving you additional yard space, room for expansion, a future build, workshop, garden, or simply added privacy.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $99,000 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   Back on market with upgrades at no fault of the property! Now has a mini-split in the living room, railing on rear steps, improved foundation support, improved attic access, and improved crawl space ventilation and skirting material! DOUBLE LOT! Charming and updated, this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Marlin, Texas offers small-town living with extra space to grow. Thoughtfully refreshed, the home features a comfortable layout with a dedicated laundry-utility room for added convenience. A welcoming front porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings. Situated on a double lot, this property offers exceptional flexibility and value. The home and the neighboring lot are being sold together, giving you additional yard space, room for expansion, a future build, workshop, garden, or simply added privacy.

3. 2026-04-20
   status Active 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   Back on market with upgrades at no fault of the property! Now has a mini-split in the living room, railing on rear steps, improved foundation support, improved attic access, and improved crawl space ventilation and skirting material! DOUBLE LOT! Charming and updated, this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Marlin, Texas offers small-town living with extra space to grow. Thoughtfully refreshed, the home features a comfortable layout with a dedicated laundry-utility room for added convenience. A welcoming front porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings. Situated on a double lot, this property offers exceptional flexibility and value. The home and the neighboring lot are being sold together, giving you additional yard space, room for expansion, a future build, workshop, garden, or simply added privacy.

4. 2026-03-13
   status Pending 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   Back on market with upgrades at no fault of the property! Now has a mini-split in the living room, railing on rear steps, improved foundation support, improved attic access, and improved crawl space ventilation and skirting material! DOUBLE LOT! Charming and updated, this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Marlin, Texas offers small-town living with extra space to grow. Thoughtfully refreshed, the home features a comfortable layout with a dedicated laundry-utility room for added convenience. A welcoming front porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings. Situated on a double lot, this property offers exceptional flexibility and value. The home and the neighboring lot are being sold together, giving you additional yard space, room for expansion, a future build, workshop, garden, or simply added privacy.

5. 2026-03-04
   historical Active Option Contract 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   Back on market with upgrades at no fault of the property! Now has a mini-split in the living room, railing on rear steps, improved foundation support, improved attic access, and improved crawl space ventilation and skirting material! DOUBLE LOT! Charming and updated, this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Marlin, Texas offers small-town living with extra space to grow. Thoughtfully refreshed, the home features a comfortable layout with a dedicated laundry-utility room for added convenience. A welcoming front porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings. Situated on a double lot, this property offers exceptional flexibility and value. The home and the neighboring lot are being sold together, giving you additional yard space, room for expansion, a future build, workshop, garden, or simply added privacy.

6. 2026-02-24
   listed $85,000 Active 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   Back on market with upgrades at no fault of the property! Now has a mini-split in the living room, railing on rear steps, improved foundation support, improved attic access, and improved crawl space ventilation and skirting material! DOUBLE LOT! Charming and updated, this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Marlin, Texas offers small-town living with extra space to grow. Thoughtfully refreshed, the home features a comfortable layout with a dedicated laundry-utility room for added convenience. A welcoming front porch provides the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings. Situated on a double lot, this property offers exceptional flexibility and value. The home and the neighboring lot are being sold together, giving you additional yard space, room for expansion, a future build, workshop, garden, or simply added privacy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$623/yr (+$52/mo · 52.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,189
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$754
• − Management: −$754
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$2,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$526
• After-tax cash flow: $59/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $85,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,189 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.