17094 SW 20th CT Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · Land · 86 Days on market

Built 2025 0.31 ac lot $168/sqft · 8% above area Est $279k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers thoughtfully planned living space with premium finishes throughout. The spacious open-concept floor plan is enhanced by 9’4” ceilings and luxury tile flooring in every room. The kitchen features 36" real wood cabinetry, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional highlights include large walk-in closets, double-pane low-emissivity windows, LED lighting, and a high-performance 16 SEER HVAC system for year-round energy efficiency. The exterior is complemented by designer landscaping and a full irrigation system, adding to the home’s curb appeal. This home also includes structural warranty by Maverick, offering peace of mind for years to come. A perfect blend of comfort, quality, and modern design—this home is move-in ready and built to impress. This home also includes structural warranty by Maverick, offering peace of mind for years to come.

Key facts

• Real wood cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Led lighting

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• REAL WOOD CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1372 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $300k implies a 708% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,438 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,597
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 7.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-63,854
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-91,264
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1372
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $904/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,244

Max offer price $274,786

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-57	+0% $-142	+5% $-227	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-224	+0% $-142	+5% $-61	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-66	base $-142	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2220 SW 169th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	22d	1	0.24mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	15d	1	0.25mi
17399 SW 25th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,800	$1.37	22d	1	0.39mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.48mi
17490 SW 27th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	15d	1	0.57mi
1663 SW 167th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	15d	1	0.66mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	15d	1	0.75mi
16390 SW 17th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,825	$1.16	15d	1	0.81mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	15d	1	0.83mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	15d	1	0.86mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.88mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	22d	1	0.89mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	22d	1	0.91mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	22d	1	0.93mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	15d	1	0.93mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	0.95mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	15d	1	0.98mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	15d	1	1.00mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	15d	1	1.00mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	15d	1	1.06mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	22d	1	1.12mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.19mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	15d	1	1.22mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	22d	1	1.28mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	22d	1	1.37mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	22d	1	1.38mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	22d	1	1.39mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	15d	1	1.40mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	22d	1	1.40mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	15d	1	1.44mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $299,900 Active 1087-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1087 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers thoughtfully planned living space with premium finishes throughout. The spacious open-concept floor plan is enhanced by 9’4” ceilings and luxury tile flooring in every room. The kitchen features 36" real wood cabinetry, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional highlights include large walk-in closets, double-pane low-emissivity windows, LED lighting, and a high-performance 16 SEER HVAC system for year-round energy efficiency. The exterior is complemented by designer landscaping and a full irrigation system, adding to the home’s curb appeal. This home also includes structural warranty by Maverick, offering peace of mind for years to come. A perfect blend of comfort, quality, and modern design—this home is move-in ready and built to impress. This home also includes structural warranty by Maverick, offering peace of mind for years to come.

18. 2007-08-24
    soldstatus $37,100
19. 2006-04-28
    soldstatus $52,600
20. 2001-11-14
    soldstatus $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,585/yr (+$132/mo · 175.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$904
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
• − Management: −$1,982
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,708
• After-tax cash flow: $2/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+351.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $37,100 Public Records
• 2006-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $52,600 Public Records
• 2001-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $904 · +64.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.