5394 Fawn Ridge Dr · Midway, FL 32563

$263,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,061 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2007 4,356 sqft lot Est $240k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming cottage-style home featuring two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an open-concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen includes a center island and pantry, offering both functionality and storage. The primary bedroom overlooks the backyard and connects to a spacious bathroom with a double vanity, tub and shower combination, and a private water closet. A one-car garage provides convenient parking and additional storage. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just updated with new LVP flooring and paint throughout. Roof and Water Heater New 2026.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Open-concept kitchen
• New paint

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• PANTRY
• PRIVACY-FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• NEW PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Shadow Lakes subdivision, Santa Rosa County; Directions: Hwy 98 into Shadow Lakes from Natures Way; continue straight as street becomes Fawn Ridge; home on the right

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Underground utilities
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Residential property; construction complete
• Construction: Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Lot measures approximately 0.1 acre (40 x 105); Underground utilities

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-story layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($276/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Navarre Primary School (723 students, 39% FRL); Woodlawn Beach Middle School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 34% FRL); Gulf Breeze High School (math 67% / reading 69%, grade B, #66 of 667 statewide, top 10%, 1,978 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $263k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,091 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,786
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1893 Crosscreek Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,124 (+6%)	7mo	$255,000	$227	76
1961 Guseman Rd	0.16mi	2/1.0	960 (-10%)	1mo	$270,000	$281	72
5331 Maverick Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-0%)	2mo	$240,000	$227	70
1989 Justice Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+8%)	5mo	$211,000	$184	63
5375 Pecos Pass	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+9%)	1mo	$260,000	$226	60
1866 Justice Cir	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (-5%)	7mo	$206,000	$204	56
5668 Charter Cir	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (-7%)	0mo	$190,000	$193	54
1671 Tuscon Ct	0.73mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,056 (-0%)	4mo	$287,000	$272	53
5600 Brentwater Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+13%)	1mo	$244,900	$204	52
1982 Pentagon St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+14%)	6mo	$252,000	$209	47
5648 United Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (+15%)	2mo	$261,000	$214	45
5764 Government Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (+13%)	6mo	$282,500	$236	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-37,968
• Equity at exit: $39,214

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-17,650
• Equity at exit: $22,739

Cash invested: $73,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,017/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,992

Max offer price $263,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $97	+0% $23	+5% $-51	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-57	+0% $23	+5% $103	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $90	base $23	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,750
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5359 Maverick Ln Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	16d	1	0.40mi
1643 Amarillo Trl Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,995	$1.36	25d	1	0.86mi
1786 Kell Rd Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,750	$1.30	16d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   Charming cottage-style home featuring two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an open-concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen includes a center island and pantry, offering both functionality and storage. The primary bedroom overlooks the backyard and connects to a spacious bathroom with a double vanity, tub and shower combination, and a private water closet. A one-car garage provides convenient parking and additional storage. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just updated with new LVP flooring and paint throughout. Roof and Water Heater New 2026.

2. 2026-05-22
   historical Contingent 610-char remark

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   Charming cottage-style home featuring two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an open-concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen includes a center island and pantry, offering both functionality and storage. The primary bedroom overlooks the backyard and connects to a spacious bathroom with a double vanity, tub and shower combination, and a private water closet. A one-car garage provides convenient parking and additional storage. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just updated with new LVP flooring and paint throughout. Roof and Water Heater New 2026.

3. 2026-05-15
   listed $263,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   Charming cottage-style home featuring two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an open-concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen includes a center island and pantry, offering both functionality and storage. The primary bedroom overlooks the backyard and connects to a spacious bathroom with a double vanity, tub and shower combination, and a private water closet. A one-car garage provides convenient parking and additional storage. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just updated with new LVP flooring and paint throughout. Roof and Water Heater New 2026.

4. 2026-05-15
   listed $263,000 Active 610-char remark

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   Charming cottage-style home featuring two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an open-concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen includes a center island and pantry, offering both functionality and storage. The primary bedroom overlooks the backyard and connects to a spacious bathroom with a double vanity, tub and shower combination, and a private water closet. A one-car garage provides convenient parking and additional storage. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just updated with new LVP flooring and paint throughout. Roof and Water Heater New 2026.

5. 2007-11-15
   soldstatus $141,900 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   RIVERSIDE II FLOORPLAN. 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH COTTAGE HOME WITH A 1 CAR GARAGE. OPEN LIVING AND KITCHEN AREA. KITCHEN HAS A SMOOTH TOP RANGE AND A SPACE SAVER MICROWAVE.

6. 2007-09-10
   listed $141,900 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   RIVERSIDE II FLOORPLAN. 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH COTTAGE HOME WITH A 1 CAR GARAGE. OPEN LIVING AND KITCHEN AREA. KITCHEN HAS A SMOOTH TOP RANGE AND A SPACE SAVER MICROWAVE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,017 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,183 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,166/yr (+$97/mo · 114.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$1,017
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable loss: −$4,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,043
• After-tax cash flow: $1,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+85.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — NAMLS
• 2026-05-22 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $263,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $263,000 NAMLS
• 2007-11-15 Sold (MLS) $141,900 PARMLS
• 2007-09-10 Listed $141,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,017 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.