Kitson Plan · Cleburne, TX 76058

$248,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $248,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,615.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in Cleburne — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marti El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 495 students, 70% FRL); Ad Wheat Middle (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 703 students, 76% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 503 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,419 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.96%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,615
• List price: $248,999
• Delta: -10.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2236 Jordan Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	32mo	$240,000	$179	58
1616 County Road 904 Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+3%)	16mo	$299,900	$200	54
3800 County Road 902	1.49mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$185,000	$138	38
5804 Martin Creek Dr	1.48mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	35mo	$95,000	$71	33
6149 County Road 1022	1.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,410 (-3%)	24mo	$442,500	$314	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-70,027
• Equity at exit: $41,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-92,724
• Equity at exit: $24,176

Cash invested: $78,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 14 under contract
• Median asking: $254,999 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 141 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 503
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,194/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $223,392

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-195	-5% $-292	+0% $-389	+5% $-485	+10% $-582
Rent	-10% $-543	-5% $-466	+0% $-389	+5% $-311	+10% $-234
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-317	base $-389	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,904
• Closing costs: $8,388
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $248,999 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $248,999 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $248,999 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $248,999 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $248,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $248,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $248,999 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $248,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $248,999 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $248,999 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $248,999 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $248,999 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $248,999 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $248,999 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $248,999 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $248,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $248,999 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $248,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $248,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $248,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $248,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $248,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $248,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $248,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $248,999 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $248,999 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $248,999 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $248,999 Active 138 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $248,999 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $248,999 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $248,999 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $248,999 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $248,999 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $248,999 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $248,999 Active 130 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $248,999 Active 128 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $248,999 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $248,999 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $248,999 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $248,999 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $248,999 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $248,999 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $248,999 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $248,999 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $248,999 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,999 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $248,999 Active 108 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,999 Active 107 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,999 Active 106 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,999 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,663
• − Property taxes: −$4,194
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − Depreciation: −$8,134
• Taxable loss: −$9,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,326
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,255–$21,765 screening

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior and kitchen can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding and trim — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can improve the functionality of the space and make it more appealing to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Adding landscaping can enhance the curb appeal and make the home more inviting to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marti El F TX #2,464/4,322 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Ad Wheat Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Cleburne H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• City population: 29,538
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,531
• Household income: $66,719
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $248,999 Zillow