317 Keswick Ave · Saw Creek, PA 18324

$149,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 773 sqft · Condo public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1984 $194/sqft · 40% above area Est $153k · at est. $212/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Unique, Loft-style Townhome in The Falls @ Saw Creek. Freshly Painted, New Living Room Carpet, Wood Burning Fireplace with Mantle, New, Ductless HVAC Unit, New HW Heater, and a Show Stopping, All Season Florida Room. A Relaxing, Wooded Retreat. .. Low Maintenance, Perfect for All Year Round Living, Weekend Getaway, First-time Home Owner or Getting Ready for Retirement. Enjoy Your Spare Time at the Outdoor Pool, Playing Tennis or Basketball, and Maybe Grabbing a Bite at The Community's Top of the World Restaurant. Excellent Commuter Locale, Minutes Away From Shawnee Mountain Ski Resort and a Short Drive to local Shopping Centers. A Terrific Opportunity for Any Lifestyle. .. .Don't Miss Out

Key facts

• Ductless hvac unit
• Loft-style townhome
• Wooded retreat

Tags

• LOFT-STYLE TOWNHOME
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• DUCTLESS HVAC UNIT
• ALL SEASON FLORIDA ROOM
• WOODED RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Falls At Saw Creek
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (listed annually; includes trash, snow removal, and grounds maintenance); Community amenities include gated entry, security, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Common off-street open parking; 1 open parking space
• Security: Community security (HOA)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Above-grade finished area: 1,104; Residential zoning
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as part of a townhouse (shared walls)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Paved private road; road maintained privately; 2+ common walls

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Unfurnished; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,853
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -1.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $32,250
• Equity at exit: $71,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $96,123
• Equity at exit: $113,994

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,115/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$212
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $212 · $2,544/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $149,900 Active 712-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,115 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,115
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − HOA: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$92
• After-tax cash flow: $1,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saw Creek, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $149,900 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,115 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.