563 W Prancer Dr · Santa Claus, IN 47579

$186,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1976 0.44 ac lot $152/sqft · 31% below area Est $270k · 31% under $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a location! This adorable ranch home is just a short distance to the beach and recreation areas of Christmas Lake Village. This home sits on a large corner lot conveniently located close to the Kaspar gate and Holly park that offers a tennis/pickle ball and basketball court. The open floor plan with laminate flooring opens up to a spacious kitchen with pantry and newer appliances and the back patio area. Offers 3 BR's 2 baths, attached garage and fenced back yard as well as a great covered porch to enjoy those beautiful evenings. See additional sheet for replacements/improvements to the home.

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Claus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#77 in IN, #4,714 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• North Spencer County School Corporation (rural): math 64% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #12 of 301 in IN (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Spencer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Spencer County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,510 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,099
• List price: $186,900
• Delta: -30.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
757 W Donder Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-1%)	0mo	$198,000	$162	83
669 W Donder Ln	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,204 (-2%)	24mo	$170,000	$141	66
781 S Sled Run Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+8%)	2mo	$283,400	$212	65
1066 W Chestnut By The Fire St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+2%)	8mo	$267,000	$213	60
686 S Sled Run St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+7%)	12mo	$210,000	$159	56
871 W Rudolph Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,313 (+7%)	13mo	$245,000	$187	45
946 W Shepherds Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+7%)	9mo	$199,500	$151	42
930 W Donder Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+14%)	15mo	$245,500	$175	41
911 W Silent Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+13%)	16mo	$235,000	$169	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,189
• Equity at exit: $67,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $25,669
• Equity at exit: $92,816

Cash invested: $52,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47579

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$980
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,346/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $161,348

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,725
• Closing costs: $5,607
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $186,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $186,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $186,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $186,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    status Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    What a location! This adorable ranch home is just a short distance to the beach and recreation areas of Christmas Lake Village. This home sits on a large corner lot conveniently located close to the Kaspar gate and Holly park that offers a tennis/pickle ball and basketball court. The open floor plan with laminate flooring opens up to a spacious kitchen with pantry and newer appliances and the back patio area. Offers 3 BR's 2 baths, attached garage and fenced back yard as well as a great covered porch to enjoy those beautiful evenings. See additional sheet for replacements/improvements to the home.

16. 2026-04-02
    status Pending 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    What a location! This adorable ranch home is just a short distance to the beach and recreation areas of Christmas Lake Village. This home sits on a large corner lot conveniently located close to the Kaspar gate and Holly park that offers a tennis/pickle ball and basketball court. The open floor plan with laminate flooring opens up to a spacious kitchen with pantry and newer appliances and the back patio area. Offers 3 BR's 2 baths, attached garage and fenced back yard as well as a great covered porch to enjoy those beautiful evenings. See additional sheet for replacements/improvements to the home.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $189,500 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    What a location! This adorable ranch home is just a short distance to the beach and recreation areas of Christmas Lake Village. This home sits on a large corner lot conveniently located close to the Kaspar gate and Holly park that offers a tennis/pickle ball and basketball court. The open floor plan with laminate flooring opens up to a spacious kitchen with pantry and newer appliances and the back patio area. Offers 3 BR's 2 baths, attached garage and fenced back yard as well as a great covered porch to enjoy those beautiful evenings. See additional sheet for replacements/improvements to the home.

18. 2026-03-05
    historical $189,500 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    What a location! This adorable ranch home is just a short distance to the beach and recreation areas of Christmas Lake Village. This home sits on a large corner lot conveniently located close to the Kaspar gate and Holly park that offers a tennis/pickle ball and basketball court. The open floor plan with laminate flooring opens up to a spacious kitchen with pantry and newer appliances and the back patio area. Offers 3 BR's 2 baths, attached garage and fenced back yard as well as a great covered porch to enjoy those beautiful evenings. See additional sheet for replacements/improvements to the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,346 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,469
• − Property taxes: −$1,346
• − Insurance: −$934
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$5,437
• Taxable loss: −$5,068
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,216
• After-tax cash flow: $-520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Spencer County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1808010
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $58,055
• Composite: 54.76/100
• National rank: #1318
• State rank: #12 of 301 in IN

Livability — Santa Claus

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #4714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Claus, IN
• City population: 2,881
• Population (ZIP): 2,881

Population outlook (Spencer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,394 people
• By 2030: 19,912 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 18,592 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 17,051 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 14,010 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 10,869 · -46.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spencer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.4% · R 70.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.6pp toward R · 2008: 0.4pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+37.3 2012: R+15.3 2008: D+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.39%
• Current HPI: 189.9442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — IRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $189,500 IRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Coming Soon $189,500 IRMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,346 · +21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.