Freeport Plan · Freeport, FL 32439

$300,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 290 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Freeport floor plan at The Bluffs in Freeport Florida. This home 4-bedrooms and 2-bathrooms. As you enter this home you find a wide foyer, and two spacious bedrooms off the entry hall. The guest bedrooms are spacious and feature ample closet space. Continuing through the entry hall, a third bedroom, ideal for a home office or flex space, is located on the adjacent hall that hosts the laundry area for a full-size washer and dryer near access to the two-car garage. Passing the fourth bedroom you will enter the open concept living area that serves as the heart of the home. From the dining area, step out to the back patio, where you can enjoy the serene surroundings of this growi

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Ensuite bathroom
• Wide foyer

Tags

• WIDE FOYER
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND
• BACK PATIO
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $300,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Plan home: "Freeport"; New construction plan
• Construction: Built as the Freeport plan
• Exterior features: Located at 51 Dockside Rd, Freeport FL 32439

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1458 total living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $300,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,058.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $301k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($71/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.92%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,058
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Dockside Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,458 (0%)	1mo	$279,665	$192	95
143 Dockside Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,458 (0%)	2mo	$289,495	$199	94
203 Dockside Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,458 (0%)	0mo	$270,253	$185	92
10 Bon Ami Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (+8%)	0mo	$344,990	$220	76
208 Bon Ami Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (+8%)	2mo	$355,000	$226	75
127 Dockside Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,293 (-11%)	3mo	$259,825	$201	70
140 Dockside Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,641 (+13%)	0mo	$316,761	$193	70
183 Dockside Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,641 (+13%)	2mo	$300,000	$183	66
55 Hydrangea Blvd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (+13%)	1mo	$346,990	$211	59
664 Alleyoak Ln Unit 37-2	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+12%)	1mo	$326,470	$200	48
593 Alleyoak Ln Unit 10-2	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+12%)	1mo	$337,270	$206	46
576 Alleyoak Ln Lot 44-2	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+12%)	2mo	$340,970	$209	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-51,319
• Equity at exit: $43,696

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-60,910
• Equity at exit: $25,338

Cash invested: $82,056 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1012
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,537
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,396/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,722

Max offer price $293,058

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,264
• Closing costs: $8,792
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 Hydrangea Blvd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,495	$1.35	21d	1	0.15mi
692 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,500	$1.41	21d	1	0.44mi
664 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,600	$1.59	21d	1	0.48mi
530 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,500	$1.46	21d	1	0.55mi
593 Alleyoak Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,600	$1.59	21d	1	0.56mi
585 Claudia Cir Freeport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$2,040	$1.89	21d	47	0.67mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,900 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,900 Active 289 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,900 Active 288 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,900 Active 287 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,900 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,900 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,900 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,900 Active 281 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,900 Active 280 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,900 Active 279 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $300,900 Active 276 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,900 Active 275 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,900 Active 274 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,900 Active 273 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,900 Active 272 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $300,900 Active 271 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,416
• − Property taxes: −$4,396
• − Insurance: −$2,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,620
• − Management: −$2,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,525
• Taxable loss: −$4,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $1,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B