3100 S Kinney Rd #215 · Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$70,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 223 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1984 Good condition $88/sqft · 36% below area Est $110k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.4

Listing remarks MLS

This well‑kept 1Bed, 1 bath manufactured home in Western Way RV (age-restricted) offers an affordable, low‑maintenance Tucson lifestyle. The bright living room and kitchen include a breakfast nook, pantry cabinet, electric range, microwave, and refrigerator. Laminate and vinyl flooring run throughout, with skylights and top‑down blinds adding comfort. Enjoy central air, forced‑air heat, and an electric water heater. Laundry is conveniently located in the large shed with washer & dryer included. Large Shed has attached cabinets and extra refrigerator. Exterior features include desert‑planted front landscaping, a covered patio, and a carport. Community amenities offer a pool, spa, pickleball, rec center, and exercise facilities for an active lifestyle.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Laminate flooring
• Electric range

Tags

• BREAKFAST NOOK
• PANTRY CABINET
• ELECTRIC RANGE
• MICROWAVE
• REFRIGERATOR
• LAMINATE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($728/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $69k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 12% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -36.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5840 W Lazy Heart St	0.29mi	2/2.0 (+1)	790 (-1%)	10mo	$111,400	$141	67
5732 W Box R St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (+1)	832 (+4%)	6mo	$116,700	$140	63
6002 W Flying M St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-10%)	4mo	$87,000	$121	62
5650 W Rocking Cir St	0.49mi	2/1.5 (+1)	784 (-2%)	9mo	$97,000	$124	59
5719 W Tumbling F St	0.45mi	1/1.5	860 (+8%)	10mo	$157,500	$183	56
5970 W Box R St #5	0.42mi	2/2.0 (+1)	860 (+8%)	7mo	$45,000	$52	53
5573 W Box R St	0.59mi	2/1.5 (+1)	840 (+5%)	7mo	$154,000	$183	52
5620 W Bar St S	0.63mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+5%)	8mo	$110,000	$131	50
5508 W Lazy Heart St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-10%)	1mo	$115,000	$160	47
5636 W Circle Z St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	896 (+12%)	8mo	$118,500	$132	42
5501 W Rocking Circle St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-10%)	7mo	$96,200	$134	41
5517 W Bar X St	0.66mi	2/2.0 (+1)	720 (-10%)	4mo	$77,700	$108	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-7,468
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-1,485
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $130,000 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 172 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -15.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$145
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $85	+0% $61	+5% $36	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $6	-5% $33	+0% $61	+5% $88	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $78	base $61	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5709 W Rocking Circle St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$895	$0.85	139d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $70,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $70,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $70,000 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $70,000 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $70,000 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $70,000 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $70,000 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $70,000 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $70,000 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 203 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 202 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 199 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $70,000 Active 197 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $70,000 Active 196 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $70,000 Active 195 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $70,000 Active 194 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $70,000 Active 193 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $70,000 Active 192 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $70,000 Active 191 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $70,000 Active 190 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $70,000 Active 189 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $70,000 Active 188 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $70,000 Active 187 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $70,000 Active 186 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $70,000 Active 185 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $70,000 Active 184 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $70,000 Active 183 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $70,000 Active 182 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $70,000 Active 181 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $70,000 Active 180 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $70,000 Active 179 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    price $70,000 Active 178 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $75,000 Active 178 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 177 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 176 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 175 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $75,000 Active 174 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 173 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 172 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 171 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 168 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 167 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 166 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    days on market $75,000 Active 165 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$662
• − Management: −$662
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable loss: −$411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$99
• After-tax cash flow: $827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,000–$12,000 screening

This well-maintained manufactured home in a Western Way RV community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with good condition and potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both exterior paint — fresh exterior paint can improve curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laura N. Banks Elementary F AZ #888/1,109 Nat'l #36,424/41,679 Middle Valencia Middle School F AZ #210/218 Nat'l #13,725/14,009 High Cholla High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima · 1,066,056 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,893
• Household income: $71,250
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own

---

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $75,000 MLSSAZ