21318 Robertson Ave · Matoaca, VA 23803

$249,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1958 0.32 ac lot $199/sqft · 10% below area Est $278k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence offering 1,258 square feet of comfortable living space situated on 0.32 acres. This well-maintained property features freshly painted interiors, new kitchen flooring, and new sewer lines, providing both cosmetic appeal and valuable system updates. Enjoy a functional floor plan, spacious yard with room to entertain or garden, and the convenience of move-in-ready living. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or adding to your investment portfolio, this home offers great value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Matoaca — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoaca Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 619 students, 81% FRL); Matoaca Middle (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D+, #257 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 865 students, 45% FRL); Matoaca High (math 49% / reading 82%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,630 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $174k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,569 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,401
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -10.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21318 Robertson Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,258 (0%)	0mo	$255,000	$203	100
21116 Warren Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,204 (-4%)	3mo	$291,400	$242	82
21338 Deodora Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-0%)	9mo	$265,000	$211	79
21134 Warren Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+7%)	6mo	$308,000	$229	72
21141 Warren Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+5%)	11mo	$258,900	$197	71
21137 Warren Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+7%)	1mo	$268,000	$199	71
4704 River Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-4%)	11mo	$255,000	$211	69
21220 Sparta Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,195 (-5%)	2mo	$185,000	$155	66
21200 Deodora Dr	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,144 (-9%)	12mo	$265,000	$232	65
21129 Warren Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-12%)	2mo	$219,950	$199	65
21404 Gilritchie Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+14%)	5mo	$330,000	$230	61
21709 Beverley St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+5%)	12mo	$300,000	$227	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,474
• Equity at exit: $91,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $47,863
• Equity at exit: $125,934

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,809/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $198,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-148	-5% $-219	+0% $-290	+5% $-360	+10% $-431
Rent	-10% $-417	-5% $-353	+0% $-290	+5% $-226	+10% $-162
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-226	base $-290	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20308 Hickory Branch Dr South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,850	$1.25	5d	1	1.16mi
20900 Riverterrace Rd Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,262	$1.33	3d	4	1.21mi
110 Grigg St Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence offering 1,258 square feet of comfortable living space situated on 0.32 acres. This well-maintained property features freshly painted interiors, new kitchen flooring, and new sewer lines, providing both cosmetic appeal and valuable system updates. Enjoy a functional floor plan, spacious yard with room to entertain or garden, and the convenience of move-in-ready living. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or adding to your investment portfolio, this home offers great value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-04-22
   listed $249,999 Active 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence offering 1,258 square feet of comfortable living space situated on 0.32 acres. This well-maintained property features freshly painted interiors, new kitchen flooring, and new sewer lines, providing both cosmetic appeal and valuable system updates. Enjoy a functional floor plan, spacious yard with room to entertain or garden, and the convenience of move-in-ready living. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or adding to your investment portfolio, this home offers great value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-04-22
   price $249,999 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence offering 1,258 square feet of comfortable living space situated on 0.32 acres. This well-maintained property features freshly painted interiors, new kitchen flooring, and new sewer lines, providing both cosmetic appeal and valuable system updates. Enjoy a functional floor plan, spacious yard with room to entertain or garden, and the convenience of move-in-ready living. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or adding to your investment portfolio, this home offers great value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-03-27
   historical $242,000 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence offering 1,258 square feet of comfortable living space situated on 0.32 acres. This well-maintained property features freshly painted interiors, new kitchen flooring, and new sewer lines, providing both cosmetic appeal and valuable system updates. Enjoy a functional floor plan, spacious yard with room to entertain or garden, and the convenience of move-in-ready living. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or adding to your investment portfolio, this home offers great value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Schedule your private showing today!

5. 2020-08-13
   soldstatus $174,000 Closed 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   This adorable maintenance free rancher located in the heart of Matoaca is waiting for YOU with 3 bedrooms, 1 UPDATED bath with ceramic tile floor, Large Family Room with original hardwoods, brick fireplace, large window, and ceiling fan, eat in kitchen with NEW vinyl floor, updated lighting, newer stainless steel stove and hood, and original hardwood cabinetry, AWESOME Laundry/Mud Room with a side entry door to make carrying in groceries and/or gardening very convenient! All 3 bedrooms also have the original hardwoods, the master bedroom offers his and her closets. Other features include a full country porch, rear deck and patio, NEW water heater, Roof in 2017, vinyl windows, and pull down attic for storage. Come live the country life and enjoy the conveniences with shopping and restaurants within 10 minutes!

6. 2020-07-05
   status Pending 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   This adorable maintenance free rancher located in the heart of Matoaca is waiting for YOU with 3 bedrooms, 1 UPDATED bath with ceramic tile floor, Large Family Room with original hardwoods, brick fireplace, large window, and ceiling fan, eat in kitchen with NEW vinyl floor, updated lighting, newer stainless steel stove and hood, and original hardwood cabinetry, AWESOME Laundry/Mud Room with a side entry door to make carrying in groceries and/or gardening very convenient! All 3 bedrooms also have the original hardwoods, the master bedroom offers his and her closets. Other features include a full country porch, rear deck and patio, NEW water heater, Roof in 2017, vinyl windows, and pull down attic for storage. Come live the country life and enjoy the conveniences with shopping and restaurants within 10 minutes!

7. 2020-07-04
   listed $169,000 Active 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   This adorable maintenance free rancher located in the heart of Matoaca is waiting for YOU with 3 bedrooms, 1 UPDATED bath with ceramic tile floor, Large Family Room with original hardwoods, brick fireplace, large window, and ceiling fan, eat in kitchen with NEW vinyl floor, updated lighting, newer stainless steel stove and hood, and original hardwood cabinetry, AWESOME Laundry/Mud Room with a side entry door to make carrying in groceries and/or gardening very convenient! All 3 bedrooms also have the original hardwoods, the master bedroom offers his and her closets. Other features include a full country porch, rear deck and patio, NEW water heater, Roof in 2017, vinyl windows, and pull down attic for storage. Come live the country life and enjoy the conveniences with shopping and restaurants within 10 minutes!

8. 2008-05-16
   soldstatus $132,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,809 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$241/yr (+$20/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,809
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Matoaca, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+88.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $249,999 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $249,999 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $242,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-08-13 Sold (MLS) $174,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-07-05 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2020-07-04 Listed $169,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,809 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.