296 Halifax Ln · Chelsea, AL 35043

$344,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 10,454 sqft lot Est $334k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home als

Key facts

• Private getaway
• Shaded covered patio
• Open concept design

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• SHADED COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE GETAWAY
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Oaks Elementary School (math 44% / reading 63%, grade C, #99 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 683 students, 27% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 305 statewide, top 9%, 1,400 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,000 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
296 Halifax Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	1mo	$344,900	$194	99
271 Halifax Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	3mo	$332,400	$187	87
284 Halifax Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	4mo	$338,965	$191	85
509 Foggy Brook Loop	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-2%)	2mo	$334,900	$193	81
500 Foggy Brook Loop	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-2%)	4mo	$325,900	$188	80
295 Halifax Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-9%)	1mo	$328,900	$203	79
288 Halifax Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-9%)	1mo	$329,900	$204	78
311 Halifax Ln	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+6%)	2mo	$339,900	$180	75
505 Foggy Brook Loop	0.20mi	4/3.0	1,941 (+9%)	2mo	$359,900	$185	70
292 Halifax Ln	0.02mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+13%)	2mo	$366,400	$182	66
501 Foggy Brook Loop	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,025 (+14%)	3mo	$358,900	$177	66
280 Halifax Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,028 (+14%)	3mo	$345,000	$170	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-61,618
• Equity at exit: $51,426

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-60,846
• Equity at exit: $29,821

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35043

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,174/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,065

Max offer price $331,728

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
283 Halifax Ln Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,950	$1.31	43d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $344,900
3. 2026-03-25
   price $349,900
4. 2026-03-12
   listed $352,400 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$5,174
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$6,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,673
• After-tax cash flow: $581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelsea, AL
• City population: 15,068
• Population (ZIP): 15,068

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Arabic 4% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.08%
• Current HPI: 205.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $344,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $349,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $352,400 Greater Alabama MLS