Prism Plan · Ponder, TX 76259

$296,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

As you enter the home, you're greeted by two bedrooms with a shared bath. Continuing down the hall toward the main living area, you'll pass an additional bedroom, a second full bath, the laundry room, and access to the two-car garage. The home then opens into a spacious kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a covered patio just off the family room. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you'll find the primary bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and primary bath.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $296,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $555,258.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 4.4% in Ponder — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ponder ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #165 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponder El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 754 students, 44% FRL); Ponder J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 381 students, 40% FRL); Ponder H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 505 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 365 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,212 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.60%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 18.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $555,258
• List price: $296,990
• Delta: -46.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
381 Split Rail Cir	1.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+0%)	27mo	$280,000	$146	35
10903 Jackson Rd	0.85mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+20%)	3mo	$474,900	$206	32
485 Stone Ridge Dr	1.42mi	4/2.0	2,016 (+5%)	24mo	$299,900	$149	32
220 Split Rail Cir	1.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (-13%)	9mo	$199,900	$120	27
9209 Old Stoney Rd	1.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,246 (+18%)	9mo	$699,000	$311	25
435 Stoney Acres	1.20mi	4/2.0	2,128 (+11%)	32mo	$240,000	$113	22
3610 George Owens Rd	1.28mi	4/2.0	2,143 (+12%)	25mo	$625,000	$292	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-210,453
• Equity at exit: $82,791

10-year hold

• IRR: -78.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.18×
• Total profit: $-338,289
• Equity at exit: $48,009

Cash invested: $155,472 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active
• Median asking: $334,950 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +61.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$694 /mo · $8,329/yr
• Insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-1,892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,857

Max offer price $281,455

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,508	-5% $-1,700	+0% $-1,892	+5% $-2,084	+10% $-2,276
Rent	-10% $-2,087	-5% $-1,989	+0% $-1,892	+5% $-1,795	+10% $-1,698
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,613	-0.5pp $-1,751	base $-1,892	+0.5pp $-2,036	+1.0pp $-2,182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,814
• Closing costs: $16,658
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan (new construction)
• Financial info: List price $326,990
• HOA & community: No HOA details provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (total)
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral air and heat pump heating
• Home design: Single-family plan (Prism)Located at 9820 Waterpark Way, Ponder, TX 76259
• Construction: No construction material, year built, roof, or foundation details provided
• Exterior features: Built as part of a new-construction planLiving area approximately 1912

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living spaces (plan name: Prism)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $296,990 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $296,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $296,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $296,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $296,990 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $296,990 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $296,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $296,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $296,990 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $296,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $296,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $296,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $296,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $296,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $296,990 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $296,990 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $296,990 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 62 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $326,990 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $326,990 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $326,990 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $326,990 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $326,990 Active 54 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 53 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $326,990 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $326,990 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $326,990 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $326,990 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $326,990 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $326,990 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $326,990 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 41 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 39 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $326,990 Active 38 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 35 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $326,990 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $326,990 Active 33 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 32 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 30 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $326,990 Active 26 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $326,990 Active 25 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $326,990 Active 24 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $326,990 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $326,990 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $326,990 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,103
• − Property taxes: −$8,329
• − Insurance: −$2,776
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$16,153
• Taxable loss: −$33,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,050
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 16 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — New carpet can improve comfort and attract renters. ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the home's appearance. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ponder El F TX #1,514/4,322 Nat'l #19,354/41,679 Middle Ponder J H C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Ponder H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ponder ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835310
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,768
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #2987
• State rank: #165 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 30% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan (new construction)
• Financial info: List price $326,990
• HOA & community: No HOA details provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (total)
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral air and heat pump heating
• Home design: Single-family plan (Prism)Located at 9820 Waterpark Way, Ponder, TX 76259
• Construction: No construction material, year built, roof, or foundation details provided
• Exterior features: Built as part of a new-construction planLiving area approximately 1912

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living spaces (plan name: Prism)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided