23 Longdenville St · Holiday City South, NJ 08757

$275,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1985 6,098 sqft lot Est $330k · 17% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TAKE MULE RD LEFT DAVENPORT, TOLFT FREEPORT, TO RT RED HOOK BAY TO ST GORGEOUS, MINT, LAKEVIEW, NEW GARAGE DOOR, NEW HOT WATER HEATER, NEW VERTICALS, 1996 PAINTED THROUGHOUT, SPRINKLERS, NEW CARPETING CEILING FANS, PORCH ENLARGEMENT, GARAGE SINK, ALMOST NEW WASHER, DRYER, CALL DIANE BEEPER 2066165,WONT LAST GREAT BUY

Key facts

• Lakeview model
• Timberline roof
• Clubhouse

Tags

• LAKEVIEW MODEL
• CORNER LOT
• TIMBERLINE ROOF
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• SALTWATER POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.9% in Holiday City South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#302 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,800/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $275k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Longdenville St	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$271,000	$220	99
49 Sabinas St	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$267,000	$217	84
8 Virgin Islands Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+8%)	2mo	$395,000	$297	82
116 Orlando Blvd	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	2mo	$287,000	$233	78
16 Calalou Ct	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$390,000	$317	77
115 San Carlos St	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$360,000	$292	70
5 Templeton St	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$244	68
149 Orlando Blvd	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,364 (+11%)	2mo	$365,000	$268	68
73 San Carlos St	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$330,000	$268	64
9 Charlotteville Dr S	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,356 (+10%)	1mo	$327,000	$241	59
1074 Edgebrook Dr S	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,074 (-13%)	2mo	$255,000	$237	56
11 Selkirk Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+8%)	0mo	$410,000	$309	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-21,700
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $10,579
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,960/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,346

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Mayaquez Ln Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1364	$2,100	$1.54	2d	1	0.62mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	2d	1	0.99mi
146 Attison Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1376	$2,500	$1.82	6d	1	1.00mi
379 Dover Rd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1156	$4,196	$3.63	1d	6	1.32mi
802 Main St Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	782	$2,499	$3.20	1d	4	1.34mi
28 Brandies Rd Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	864	$2,800	$3.24	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $275,000 Active
3. 1998-06-11
   soldstatus $88,500
4. 1998-06-03
   soldstatus $88,000 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   TAKE MULE RD LEFT DAVENPORT, TOLFT FREEPORT, TO RT RED HOOK BAY TO ST GORGEOUS, MINT, LAKEVIEW, NEW GARAGE DOOR, NEW HOT WATER HEATER, NEW VERTICALS, 1996 PAINTED THROUGHOUT, SPRINKLERS, NEW CARPETING CEILING FANS, PORCH ENLARGEMENT, GARAGE SINK, ALMOST NEW WASHER, DRYER, CALL DIANE BEEPER 2066165,WONT LAST GREAT BUY

5. 1998-04-16
   historical 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   TAKE MULE RD LEFT DAVENPORT, TOLFT FREEPORT, TO RT RED HOOK BAY TO ST GORGEOUS, MINT, LAKEVIEW, NEW GARAGE DOOR, NEW HOT WATER HEATER, NEW VERTICALS, 1996 PAINTED THROUGHOUT, SPRINKLERS, NEW CARPETING CEILING FANS, PORCH ENLARGEMENT, GARAGE SINK, ALMOST NEW WASHER, DRYER, CALL DIANE BEEPER 2066165,WONT LAST GREAT BUY

6. 1998-04-08
   listed $90,000 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   TAKE MULE RD LEFT DAVENPORT, TOLFT FREEPORT, TO RT RED HOOK BAY TO ST GORGEOUS, MINT, LAKEVIEW, NEW GARAGE DOOR, NEW HOT WATER HEATER, NEW VERTICALS, 1996 PAINTED THROUGHOUT, SPRINKLERS, NEW CARPETING CEILING FANS, PORCH ENLARGEMENT, GARAGE SINK, ALMOST NEW WASHER, DRYER, CALL DIANE BEEPER 2066165,WONT LAST GREAT BUY

7. 1985-07-01
   soldstatus $62,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,960 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,904 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,944/yr (+$162/mo · 65.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,960
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $4,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City South

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #9268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City South, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+336.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $275,000 MOMLS
• 1998-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $88,500 Public Records
• 1998-06-03 Sold (MLS) $88,000 MOMLS
• 1998-04-16 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-04-08 Listed $90,000 MOMLS
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,990 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,960 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.